Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 04/09, 20:00

Prediction: Almere City FC vs Ajax Reserves

Team pages: Almere City FC · Ajax Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Almere City FC2.8

Ajax Reserves1.32

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Almere City FC Draw Ajax Reserves

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLDWWW

Ajax Reserves 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Almere City FC 4–2 Ajax Reserves (6 last)

Ajax Reserves0-2Almere City FC
Almere City FC3-2Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves0-2Almere City FC
Almere City FC2-3Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-3Almere City FC
Almere City FC2-4Ajax Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almere City FC 1553 · Ajax Reserves 1408

	Almere City FC	Draw	Ajax Reserves
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Almere City FC (rating 1553 vs 1408).
H2H favours Almere City FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City FC	Ajax Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.5 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:19 +4’	1.38	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City FC 4–0–2 Ajax Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	Almere City FC
05/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	3-2 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves
17/03/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	Almere City FC
14/10/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	2-3 HT 1-2	Ajax Reserves
21/02/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-3 HT 1-2	Almere City FC
17/09/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	2-4 HT 1-1	Ajax Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	4	4	0	0	16	7	12
2	Maastricht	4	4	0	0	8	4	12
3	Almere City FC	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
4	VVV	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
5	FC Emmen	4	3	0	1	10	9	9
6	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
7	Roda JC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
8	PSV Reserves	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
8	NAC	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
10	FC Volendam	4	2	0	2	11	5	6
11	RKC	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
12	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
13	FC Dordrecht	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	AZ Reserves	4	1	0	3	7	8	3
15	Ajax Reserves	4	1	0	3	10	13	3
16	Top Oss	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
17	FC Eindhoven	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
18	Helmond Sport	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
19	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	5	12	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	4	0	0	4	4	13	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City FC	Ajax Reserves
Vitesse	3-0 W	1-6 L
PSV Reserves	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Almere City FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City FC

LWWDLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-1	5	2	W
21/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
14/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
08/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
16/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
13/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
09/05	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
06/05	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	3	0	W
02/05	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
24/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-3	7	1	L

Ajax Reserves

LLLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-3	4-6	3	3	L
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
24/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
13/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
06/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-6	2	2	L
03/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	2-4	5	6	L
20/03	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City FC vs Ajax Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Almere City FC win (67%). Probabilities: Almere City FC 67%, draw 18%, Ajax Reserves 15%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs Ajax Reserves?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Almere City FC 2.8 · Ajax Reserves 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Ajax Reserves?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.