Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Ajax Reserves vs RKC

Team pages: Ajax Reserves · RKC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Ajax Reserves1.57

RKC1.85

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Ajax Reserves Draw RKC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax Reserves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWDW

RKC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLDDDDDW

Head-to-head

Ajax Reserves 2–1–3 RKC (6 last)

Ajax Reserves0-2RKC
RKC2-1Ajax Reserves
RKC4-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves2-1RKC
RKC2-4Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-1RKC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RKC (rating 1440 vs 1538).
H2H favours RKC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax Reserves	RKC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	1.1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.86

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:06

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.74 → 3.74	Pinn 3.74
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.00
2	1.81 → 1.81	Pinn 1.81

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:06	3.74	4.00	1.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax Reserves 2–1–3 RKC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	RKC
29/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	RKC	2-1 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves
18/01/19 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	RKC	4-1 HT 4-0	Ajax Reserves
19/10/18 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-1 HT 1-1	RKC
26/01/18 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	RKC	2-4 HT 1-2	Ajax Reserves
11/09/17 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-1 HT 1-0	RKC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	5	5	0	0	21	7	15
2	Maastricht	4	4	0	0	8	4	12
3	FC Emmen	5	4	0	1	15	12	12
4	Almere City FC	5	3	1	1	11	4	10
5	Vitesse	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
6	VVV	5	3	0	2	13	9	9
7	PSV Reserves	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
8	Roda JC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	RKC	5	1	4	0	10	8	7
10	NAC	5	2	1	2	9	11	7
11	Ajax Reserves	6	2	1	3	12	14	7
12	FC Volendam	5	2	0	3	14	10	6
13	AZ Reserves	5	2	0	3	9	9	6
14	Helmond Sport	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
15	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
16	FC Dordrecht	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
17	FC Eindhoven	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
18	Top Oss	5	1	0	4	4	9	3
19	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	5	17	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	5	0	0	5	5	15	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax Reserves	RKC
PSV Reserves	1-1 D	2-2 D
Helmond Sport	3-2 W	1-1 D
NAC	2-3 L	4-2 W
FC Dordrecht	1-2 L	2-2 D
Vitesse	1-6 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: RKC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax Reserves

LLWLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-3	4-6	3	3	L
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
24/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
13/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
06/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-6	2	2	L

RKC

LWDLDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-2	3	5	W
28/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	2	2	D
21/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
07/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
09/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
05/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
01/05	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
24/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-1	0	3	W
17/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-5	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax Reserves vs RKC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RKC win (44%). Probabilities: Ajax Reserves 32%, draw 24%, RKC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax Reserves vs RKC?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Ajax Reserves 1.57 · RKC 1.85), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax Reserves vs RKC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.