Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 14/09, 20:00

Prediction: PSV Reserves vs AZ Reserves

Team pages: PSV Reserves · AZ Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

PSV Reserves1.83

AZ Reserves1.96

1X2

35% 24% 41%

PSV Reserves Draw AZ Reserves

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

PSV Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWDDWL

AZ Reserves 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLWWL

Head-to-head

PSV Reserves 3–1–2 AZ Reserves (6 last)

AZ Reserves0-2PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves1-0AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves2-2PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves2-1AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves4-1PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves1-2AZ Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSV Reserves 1493 · AZ Reserves 1516

	PSV Reserves	Draw	AZ Reserves
Our model	36%	23%	41%
Market	35%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PSV Reserves: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSV Reserves	AZ Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.80

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.11 ★
2	2.20 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +12’	2.70	3.80	2.20
04:17 +6’	2.80▲	3.80	2.25▲
17:58 +33’	2.70▼	3.80	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +55’	2.70	4.03	2.23
13:30 +147’	2.65▼	4.13▲	2.24▲
17:50 +41’	2.54▼	4.11▼	2.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV Reserves 3–1–2 AZ Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
29/08/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	AZ Reserves
07/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-2 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
25/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	2-1 HT 1-1	AZ Reserves
08/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	4-1 HT 1-0	PSV Reserves
24/11/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-2 HT 0-1	AZ Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	6	6	0	0	24	9	18
2	Almere City FC	6	4	1	1	15	4	13
3	Maastricht	6	4	1	1	9	9	13
4	VVV	6	4	0	2	16	10	12
5	FC Emmen	6	4	0	2	16	14	12
6	Roda JC	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	PSV Reserves	7	3	2	2	12	12	11
8	RKC	6	2	4	0	12	8	10
9	Vitesse	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
10	AZ Reserves	7	3	0	4	17	15	9
11	Helmond Sport	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
12	NAC	6	2	1	3	11	14	7
13	FC Eindhoven	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
14	Ajax Reserves	7	2	1	4	12	16	7
15	FC Volendam	5	2	0	3	14	10	6
16	FC Den Bosch	5	1	1	3	10	13	4
17	FC Dordrecht	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
18	De Graafschap	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
19	FC Utrecht Reserves	7	1	1	5	8	17	4
20	Top Oss	6	1	0	5	5	12	3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSV Reserves

WLLWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
24/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
17/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
13/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	2	W

AZ Reserves

LLWLWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	1	2	L
05/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-2	6-3	6	5	W
31/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
28/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
17/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	5-2	3	7	W
10/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
24/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	12	2	W
17/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
13/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSV Reserves vs AZ Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AZ Reserves win (41%). Probabilities: PSV Reserves 35%, draw 24%, AZ Reserves 41%.

How many goals are expected in PSV Reserves vs AZ Reserves?

The model expects 3.79 goals (PSV Reserves 1.83 · AZ Reserves 1.96), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in PSV Reserves vs AZ Reserves?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.