Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: FC Eindhoven vs FC Dordrecht

Team pages: FC Eindhoven · FC Dordrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

FC Eindhoven1.82

FC Dordrecht1.78

1X2

38% 25% 37%

FC Eindhoven Draw FC Dordrecht

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Eindhoven 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWWLLL

FC Dordrecht 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWDLLL

Head-to-head

FC Eindhoven 1–5–0 FC Dordrecht (6 last)

FC Dordrecht3-4FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven2-2FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht3-3FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven0-0FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht0-0FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven1-1FC Dordrecht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Eindhoven 1452 · FC Dordrecht 1435

	FC Eindhoven	Draw	FC Dordrecht
Our model	39%	24%	37%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Eindhoven	FC Dordrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	1.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +4’	2.45	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Eindhoven 1–5–0 FC Dordrecht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	3-4 HT 1-2	FC Eindhoven
30/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	2-2 HT 2-1	FC Dordrecht
20/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	3-3 HT 1-1	FC Eindhoven
13/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dordrecht
15/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Eindhoven
29/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Dordrecht

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	5	5	0	0	21	7	15
2	Maastricht	5	4	1	0	9	5	13
3	FC Emmen	5	4	0	1	15	12	12
4	Almere City FC	5	3	1	1	11	4	10
5	Vitesse	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
6	VVV	5	3	0	2	13	9	9
7	AZ Reserves	6	3	0	3	15	12	9
8	Roda JC	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
9	PSV Reserves	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
10	RKC	5	1	4	0	10	8	7
11	NAC	5	2	1	2	9	11	7
12	Ajax Reserves	6	2	1	3	12	14	7
13	FC Volendam	5	2	0	3	14	10	6
14	Helmond Sport	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
15	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
16	FC Dordrecht	5	1	1	3	8	16	4
17	FC Eindhoven	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
18	Top Oss	5	1	0	4	4	9	3
19	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	5	17	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	5	0	0	5	5	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Eindhoven	FC Dordrecht
AZ Reserves	1-0 W	3-6 L
Roda JC	1-3 L	0-1 L
ADO Den Haag	0-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dordrecht (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Eindhoven

WDLLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
21/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-5	1	1	L
14/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	6	1	L
10/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
17/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	11	5	L
10/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
06/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
03/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
28/03	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

FC Dordrecht

LDWLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-3	3-6	2	5	L
28/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	1-6	3	4	L
21/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
14/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
07/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	8	7	W
24/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/04	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
12/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
06/04	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
03/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	9	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Eindhoven vs FC Dordrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Eindhoven win (38%). Probabilities: FC Eindhoven 38%, draw 25%, FC Dordrecht 37%.

How many goals are expected in FC Eindhoven vs FC Dordrecht?

The model expects 3.6 goals (FC Eindhoven 1.82 · FC Dordrecht 1.78), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs FC Dordrecht?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.