Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 18/09, 20:00

Prediction: Ajax Reserves vs Roda JC

Team pages: Ajax Reserves · Roda JC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Ajax Reserves1.46

Roda JC1.72

1X2

32% 25% 43%

Ajax Reserves Draw Roda JC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax Reserves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWDWL

Roda JC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWWDDW

Head-to-head

Ajax Reserves 1–3–2 Roda JC (6 last)

Ajax Reserves2-2Roda JC
Roda JC3-3Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves3-1Roda JC
Roda JC2-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-1Roda JC
Roda JC2-1Ajax Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax Reserves 1454 · Roda JC 1538

	Ajax Reserves	Draw	Roda JC
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roda JC (rating 1454 vs 1538).
H2H favours Roda JC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax Reserves	Roda JC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.7	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.70

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +8’	2.90	3.70	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax Reserves 1–3–2 Roda JC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-2 HT 1-2	Roda JC
12/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	3-3 HT 1-2	Ajax Reserves
23/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	3-1 HT 2-1	Roda JC
25/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	2-1 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves
26/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-1 HT 1-1	Roda JC
27/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	2-1 HT 1-1	Ajax Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	6	6	0	0	24	9	18
2	Almere City FC	6	4	1	1	15	4	13
3	Maastricht	6	4	1	1	9	9	13
4	VVV	6	4	0	2	16	10	12
5	FC Emmen	6	4	0	2	16	14	12
6	Roda JC	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	PSV Reserves	7	3	2	2	12	12	11
8	RKC	6	2	4	0	12	8	10
9	Vitesse	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
10	FC Volendam	6	3	0	3	16	10	9
11	AZ Reserves	7	3	0	4	17	15	9
12	Helmond Sport	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
13	NAC	6	2	1	3	11	14	7
14	FC Eindhoven	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
15	Ajax Reserves	7	2	1	4	12	16	7
16	FC Den Bosch	6	1	1	4	10	15	4
17	FC Dordrecht	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
18	De Graafschap	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
19	FC Utrecht Reserves	7	1	1	5	8	17	4
20	Top Oss	6	1	0	5	5	12	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax Reserves	Roda JC
RKC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Helmond Sport	3-2 W	2-1 W
NAC	2-3 L	2-2 D
FC Emmen	4-6 L	0-1 L
FC Dordrecht	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Roda JC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax Reserves

LWLLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-3	4-6	3	3	L
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
24/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
13/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	9	3	L

Roda JC

WDLDLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
21/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
07/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
01/05	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
24/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
17/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
10/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax Reserves vs Roda JC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Roda JC win (43%). Probabilities: Ajax Reserves 32%, draw 25%, Roda JC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax Reserves vs Roda JC?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Ajax Reserves 1.46 · Roda JC 1.72), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax Reserves vs Roda JC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.