Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 19/09, 16:30

Prediction: Vitesse vs PSV Reserves

Team pages: Vitesse · PSV Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Vitesse2.03

PSV Reserves1.26

1X2

54% 23% 22%

Vitesse Draw PSV Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitesse 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWLWWL

PSV Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWDDWL

Head-to-head

Vitesse 2–2 PSV Reserves (4 last)

PSV Reserves0-2Vitesse
Vitesse3-1PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves6-4Vitesse
Vitesse1-3PSV Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitesse 1557 · PSV Reserves 1473

	Vitesse	Draw	PSV Reserves
Our model	54%	23%	22%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vitesse (rating 1557 vs 1473).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitesse	PSV Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +12’	1.70	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitesse 2–0–2 PSV Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	Vitesse
25/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	3-1 HT 2-1	PSV Reserves
20/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	6-4 HT 3-1	Vitesse
25/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	1-3 HT 1-2	PSV Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	6	6	0	0	24	9	18
2	Almere City FC	6	4	1	1	15	4	13
3	Maastricht	6	4	1	1	9	9	13
4	VVV	6	4	0	2	16	10	12
5	FC Emmen	6	4	0	2	16	14	12
6	Roda JC	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	PSV Reserves	7	3	2	2	12	12	11
8	RKC	6	2	4	0	12	8	10
9	Vitesse	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
10	FC Volendam	6	3	0	3	16	10	9
11	AZ Reserves	7	3	0	4	17	15	9
12	Helmond Sport	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
13	NAC	6	2	1	3	11	14	7
14	FC Eindhoven	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
15	Ajax Reserves	7	2	1	4	12	16	7
16	FC Den Bosch	6	1	1	4	10	15	4
17	FC Dordrecht	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
18	De Graafschap	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
19	FC Utrecht Reserves	7	1	1	5	8	17	4
20	Top Oss	6	1	0	5	5	12	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitesse	PSV Reserves
Top Oss	2-1 W	1-0 W
FC Den Bosch	4-1 W	3-1 W
Almere City FC	0-3 L	1-3 L
RKC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Ajax Reserves	6-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vitesse (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitesse

DWWDDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
04/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
28/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	4-1	0	3	W
21/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
17/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
07/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
17/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
13/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
06/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	6-1	5	2	W
03/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-3	9	6	D

PSV Reserves

WLLWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
24/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
17/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
13/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitesse vs PSV Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitesse win (54%). Probabilities: Vitesse 54%, draw 23%, PSV Reserves 22%.

How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs PSV Reserves?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Vitesse 2.03 · PSV Reserves 1.26), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitesse vs PSV Reserves?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.