Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Helmond Sport vs PSV Reserves

Team pages: Helmond Sport · PSV Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Helmond Sport1.42

PSV Reserves1.36

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Helmond Sport Draw PSV Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Helmond Sport 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLDLDLW

PSV Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWDD

Head-to-head

Helmond Sport 1–2–3 PSV Reserves (6 last)

PSV Reserves4-0Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport2-3PSV Reserves
Helmond Sport1-1PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves1-3Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport2-2PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves2-1Helmond Sport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Helmond Sport 1435 · PSV Reserves 1503

	Helmond Sport	Draw	PSV Reserves
Our model	38%	28%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV Reserves (rating 1435 vs 1503).
H2H favours PSV Reserves: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Helmond Sport	PSV Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	3.5 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.75

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +4’	2.35	3.75	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Helmond Sport 1–2–3 PSV Reserves

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	4-0 HT 2-0	Helmond Sport
08/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	2-3 HT 0-2	PSV Reserves
14/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	1-1 HT 1-0	PSV Reserves
30/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-3 HT 0-3	Helmond Sport
19/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	2-2 HT 2-1	PSV Reserves
28/08/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	2-1 HT 1-0	Helmond Sport

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	5	5	0	0	21	7	15
2	Maastricht	5	4	1	0	9	5	13
3	FC Emmen	5	4	0	1	15	12	12
4	Almere City FC	5	3	1	1	11	4	10
5	Vitesse	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
6	VVV	5	3	0	2	13	9	9
7	AZ Reserves	6	3	0	3	15	12	9
8	Roda JC	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
9	PSV Reserves	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
10	RKC	5	1	4	0	10	8	7
11	NAC	5	2	1	2	9	11	7
12	Ajax Reserves	6	2	1	3	12	14	7
13	FC Volendam	5	2	0	3	14	10	6
14	Helmond Sport	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
15	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
16	FC Dordrecht	5	1	1	3	8	16	4
17	FC Eindhoven	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
18	Top Oss	5	1	0	4	4	9	3
19	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	5	17	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	5	0	0	5	5	15	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Helmond Sport	PSV Reserves
VVV	4-2 W	1-0 W
Ajax Reserves	2-3 L	1-1 D
RKC	1-1 D	2-2 D
AZ Reserves	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: PSV Reserves (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Helmond Sport

LDDWLDLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
28/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-3	9	3	L
21/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
14/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
09/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
24/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
17/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
10/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
06/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	2-2	0	7	D
03/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-2	2	4	L

PSV Reserves

LWWLLWLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
24/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
17/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
13/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
06/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
03/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Helmond Sport vs PSV Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Helmond Sport win (39%). Probabilities: Helmond Sport 39%, draw 26%, PSV Reserves 35%.

How many goals are expected in Helmond Sport vs PSV Reserves?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Helmond Sport 1.42 · PSV Reserves 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs PSV Reserves?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.