Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 09/10, 20:00

Prediction: Ajax Reserves vs VVV

Team pages: Ajax Reserves · VVV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Ajax Reserves1.68

VVV1.98

1X2

32% 23% 44%

Ajax Reserves Draw VVV

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDWLLD

VVV 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Ajax Reserves 2–4 VVV (6 last)

VVV0-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves2-4VVV
VVV1-0Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves0-1VVV
VVV2-0Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves3-0VVV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax Reserves 1448 · VVV 1507

	Ajax Reserves	Draw	VVV
Our model	32%	23%	44%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VVV (rating 1448 vs 1507).
H2H favours VVV: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax Reserves	VVV
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.1	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.90

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.95
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.24 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +13’	2.88	3.90	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:54 +1’	2.65	3.95	2.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax Reserves 2–0–4 VVV

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	VVV	0-1 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
26/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-4 HT 1-1	VVV
07/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	VVV	1-0 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
01/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	VVV
03/05/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	VVV	2-0 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
06/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	3-0 HT 2-0	VVV

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	28	12	22
2	Almere City FC	9	6	1	2	19	7	19
3	FC Emmen	9	5	1	3	19	18	16
4	Maastricht	9	5	1	3	13	19	16
5	VVV	8	5	0	3	21	14	15
6	Roda JC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
7	RKC	9	3	5	1	19	12	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	15	13	14
9	NAC	9	4	2	3	19	19	14
10	AZ Reserves	9	4	1	4	22	17	13
11	FC Volendam	9	4	0	5	20	17	12
12	PSV Reserves	9	3	3	3	14	16	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	3	2	4	15	19	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	15	16	9
15	Top Oss	9	3	0	6	12	14	9
16	FC Den Bosch	9	2	2	5	13	18	8
17	Ajax Reserves	9	2	2	5	13	22	8
18	FC Dordrecht	9	2	2	5	13	24	8
19	De Graafschap	9	2	2	5	11	22	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	9	2	1	6	15	21	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax Reserves	VVV
FC Utrecht Reserves	1-6 L	3-1 W
Almere City FC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Helmond Sport	3-2 W	2-4 L
NAC	2-3 L	2-0 W
FC Emmen	4-6 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: VVV (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax Reserves

LLLLWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	8	7	L
11/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-3	4-6	3	3	L
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
24/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L

VVV

LWLWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-3	7	1	L
18/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	4	2	W
11/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
04/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	2-4	8	5	L
30/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
23/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
14/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
07/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	3-4	5	4	L
24/04	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	3-1	2	1	W
17/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax Reserves vs VVV?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VVV win (44%). Probabilities: Ajax Reserves 32%, draw 23%, VVV 44%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax Reserves vs VVV?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Ajax Reserves 1.68 · VVV 1.98), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax Reserves vs VVV?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.