Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 09/10, 20:00

Prediction: AZ Reserves vs FC Den Bosch

Team pages: AZ Reserves · FC Den Bosch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.14Total

AZ Reserves2.55

FC Den Bosch1.58

1X2

58% 20% 22%

AZ Reserves Draw FC Den Bosch

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

AZ Reserves 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLDW

FC Den Bosch 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLLLWL

Head-to-head

AZ Reserves 1–4–1 FC Den Bosch (6 last)

AZ Reserves2-2FC Den Bosch
FC Den Bosch2-3AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves0-0FC Den Bosch
FC Den Bosch6-0AZ Reserves
FC Den Bosch0-0AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves0-0FC Den Bosch

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ Reserves (rating 1532 vs 1441).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ Reserves	FC Den Bosch
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	3.1 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.97

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:53

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.87 → 1.87	Pinn 1.87
X	4.37 → 4.37	Pinn 4.37
2	3.27 → 3.27	Pinn 3.27

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:16 +36’	1.87	4.37	3.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ Reserves 1–4–1 FC Den Bosch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Den Bosch
26/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	2-3 HT 2-1	AZ Reserves
28/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Den Bosch
16/08/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	6-0 HT 3-0	AZ Reserves
16/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	0-0 HT 0-0	AZ Reserves
11/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Den Bosch

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	28	12	22
2	Almere City FC	8	5	1	2	18	7	16
3	Maastricht	8	5	1	2	12	15	16
4	VVV	8	5	0	3	21	14	15
5	Roda JC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
6	FC Emmen	8	5	0	3	18	17	15
7	RKC	8	3	4	1	18	11	13
8	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	13	11	13
9	NAC	8	4	1	3	17	17	13
10	AZ Reserves	9	4	1	4	22	17	13
11	FC Volendam	8	4	0	4	20	16	12
12	PSV Reserves	9	3	3	3	14	16	12
13	FC Eindhoven	8	3	1	4	13	17	10
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	15	16	9
15	Ajax Reserves	9	2	2	5	13	22	8
16	FC Den Bosch	8	2	1	5	12	17	7
17	FC Dordrecht	8	2	1	5	12	23	7
18	De Graafschap	8	2	1	5	9	20	7
19	FC Utrecht Reserves	9	2	1	6	15	21	7
20	Top Oss	8	2	0	6	8	13	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ Reserves	FC Den Bosch
FC Volendam	4-1 W	0-2 L
PSV Reserves	1-1 D	1-3 L
Heracles	2-3 L	2-3 L
De Graafschap	5-2 W	0-1 L
FC Eindhoven	0-1 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: AZ Reserves (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
14/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	1	2	L
05/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-2	6-3	6	5	W
31/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
28/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
17/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	5-2	3	7	W
10/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
24/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	12	2	W

FC Den Bosch

LLDLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
18/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
13/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
07/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	10	2	L
28/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-4	16	3	L
21/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	5-2	6	1	W
14/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	6	1	L
08/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
02/05	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	7	1	L
24/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	3	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ Reserves vs FC Den Bosch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ Reserves win (58%). Probabilities: AZ Reserves 58%, draw 20%, FC Den Bosch 22%.

How many goals are expected in AZ Reserves vs FC Den Bosch?

The model expects 4.14 goals (AZ Reserves 2.55 · FC Den Bosch 1.58), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ Reserves vs FC Den Bosch?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.