Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 09/10, 20:00

Prediction: Roda JC vs PSV Reserves

Team pages: Roda JC · PSV Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Roda JC1.84

PSV Reserves1.02

1X2

56% 23% 20%

Roda JC Draw PSV Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Roda JC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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PSV Reserves 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDWLDL

Head-to-head

Roda JC 4–1–1 PSV Reserves (6 last)

Roda JC0-2PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves0-1Roda JC
PSV Reserves1-1Roda JC
Roda JC2-1PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves2-3Roda JC
PSV Reserves0-1Roda JC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Roda JC 1511 · PSV Reserves 1492

	Roda JC	Draw	PSV Reserves
Our model	56%	25%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Roda JC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Roda JC	PSV Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

24.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.67 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:44 +10’	1.61	4.20	4.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +12’	1.67	4.08	4.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Roda JC 4–1–1 PSV Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	0-2 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
15/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	Roda JC
18/07/25 Europe Friendlies	PSV Reserves	1-1 HT 1-1	Roda JC
07/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	2-1 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
09/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	2-3 HT 1-0	Roda JC
02/08/24 Club Friendly List	PSV Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	Roda JC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	28	12	22
2	Almere City FC	9	6	1	2	19	7	19
3	FC Emmen	9	5	1	3	19	18	16
4	Maastricht	9	5	1	3	13	19	16
5	VVV	8	5	0	3	21	14	15
6	Roda JC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
7	RKC	9	3	5	1	19	12	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	15	13	14
9	NAC	9	4	2	3	19	19	14
10	AZ Reserves	9	4	1	4	22	17	13
11	FC Volendam	9	4	0	5	20	17	12
12	PSV Reserves	9	3	3	3	14	16	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	3	2	4	15	19	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	15	16	9
15	Top Oss	9	3	0	6	12	14	9
16	FC Den Bosch	9	2	2	5	13	18	8
17	Ajax Reserves	9	2	2	5	13	22	8
18	FC Dordrecht	9	2	2	5	13	24	8
19	De Graafschap	9	2	2	5	11	22	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	9	2	1	6	15	21	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Roda JC	PSV Reserves
RKC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Ajax Reserves	0-0 D	1-1 D
Vitesse	1-0 W	1-3 L
Helmond Sport	2-1 W	1-3 L
AZ Reserves	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Roda JC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Roda JC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
18/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
12/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
21/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
07/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
01/05	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
24/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

PSV Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
14/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
11/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
24/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-4	9	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Roda JC vs PSV Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Roda JC win (56%). Probabilities: Roda JC 56%, draw 23%, PSV Reserves 20%.

How many goals are expected in Roda JC vs PSV Reserves?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Roda JC 1.84 · PSV Reserves 1.02), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Roda JC vs PSV Reserves?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.