Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 14/11, 20:00

Prediction: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

Team pages: Almere City FC · Helmond Sport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Almere City FC2.34

Helmond Sport1.28

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Almere City FC Draw Helmond Sport

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Helmond Sport 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Almere City FC 2–1–3 Helmond Sport (6 last)

Almere City FC0-1Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport2-1Almere City FC
Almere City FC0-0Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport3-0Almere City FC
Almere City FC3-0Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport1-2Almere City FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Almere City FC (rating 1553 vs 1449).
H2H favours Helmond Sport: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City FC	Helmond Sport
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.94

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.43 → 1.43	Pinn 1.43
X	4.98 → 4.98	Pinn 4.98
2	5.98 → 5.98	Pinn 5.98

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:43 +171’	1.43	4.98	5.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City FC 2–1–3 Helmond Sport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Helmond Sport
03/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	2-1 HT 1-0	Almere City FC
17/02/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Helmond Sport
02/09/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	3-0 HT 1-0	Almere City FC
11/03/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Helmond Sport
01/11/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	1-2 HT 1-2	Almere City FC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	14	11	2	1	44	15	35
2	VVV	14	9	2	3	37	22	29
3	Almere City FC	14	9	1	4	30	14	28
4	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
5	NAC	14	7	4	3	25	20	25
6	Roda JC	14	7	4	3	18	17	25
7	FC Volendam	14	7	1	6	33	24	22
8	FC Den Bosch	14	5	4	5	24	22	19
9	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
10	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
11	RKC	14	3	8	3	23	20	17
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
15	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
16	Top Oss	14	4	2	8	20	23	14
17	Helmond Sport	14	3	3	8	25	31	12
18	FC Dordrecht	14	3	3	8	18	34	12
19	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11
20	FC Eindhoven	14	3	2	9	18	31	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City FC	Helmond Sport
AZ Reserves	3-1 W	4-5 L
FC Eindhoven	3-0 W	3-2 W
FC Volendam	1-0 W	2-3 L
Heracles	1-0 W	2-2 D
Maastricht	4-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Almere City FC (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
30/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
23/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-3	3	0	L
17/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
09/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
03/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
18/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
11/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
04/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	10	5	L

Helmond Sport

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	6	0	L
30/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	3-2	6	9	W
23/10	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	4-5	7	0	L
16/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
09/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
02/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	2	9	D
26/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
18/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
11/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
04/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Almere City FC win (60%). Probabilities: Almere City FC 60%, draw 21%, Helmond Sport 19%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Almere City FC 2.34 · Helmond Sport 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.