Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: FC Eindhoven vs Ajax Reserves

Team pages: FC Eindhoven · Ajax Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

FC Eindhoven1.92

Ajax Reserves1.75

1X2

41% 24% 35%

FC Eindhoven Draw Ajax Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Eindhoven 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Ajax Reserves 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Eindhoven 3–2–1 Ajax Reserves (6 last)

FC Eindhoven2-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-3FC Eindhoven
Ajax Reserves0-2FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven0-3Ajax Reserves
FC Eindhoven2-2Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-1FC Eindhoven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Eindhoven 1470 · Ajax Reserves 1463

	FC Eindhoven	Draw	Ajax Reserves
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	41%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Eindhoven: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Eindhoven	Ajax Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +2’	2.25	3.80	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Eindhoven 3–2–1 Ajax Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	2-1 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves
21/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Eindhoven
03/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Eindhoven
24/08/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	0-3 HT 0-1	Ajax Reserves
23/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	2-2 HT 1-1	Ajax Reserves
25/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Eindhoven

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	13	9	1	3	36	21	28
3	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	25
4	Roda JC	13	7	4	2	17	12	25
5	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	19
8	FC Den Bosch	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	AZ Reserves	13	5	2	6	32	28	17
11	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	RKC	13	3	7	3	22	19	16
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
15	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
16	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	12
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	11
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Eindhoven	Ajax Reserves
Helmond Sport	2-3 L	3-2 W
PSV Reserves	1-2 L	1-1 D
Almere City FC	0-3 L	1-0 W
De Graafschap	2-2 D	2-1 W
NAC	2-4 L	2-3 L
FC Utrecht Reserves	0-0 D	1-6 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ajax Reserves (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Eindhoven

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-3	2	9	L
23/10	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
16/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
09/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
03/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	8	6	D
26/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-4	2	3	L
18/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
11/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
07/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
30/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	6	2	L

Ajax Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-3	3	4	D
19/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
09/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
18/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	8	7	L
11/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Eindhoven vs Ajax Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Eindhoven win (41%). Probabilities: FC Eindhoven 41%, draw 24%, Ajax Reserves 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Eindhoven vs Ajax Reserves?

The model expects 3.67 goals (FC Eindhoven 1.92 · Ajax Reserves 1.75), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Ajax Reserves?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.