Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: Heracles vs Roda JC

Team pages: Heracles · Roda JC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Heracles2.05

Roda JC0.86

1X2

64% 21% 14%

Heracles Draw Roda JC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Heracles 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDWWD

Roda JC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Heracles 4–2–0 Roda JC (6 last)

Heracles1-0Roda JC
Roda JC1-3Heracles
Roda JC2-2Heracles
Roda JC0-3Heracles
Heracles2-1Roda JC
Heracles2-2Roda JC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heracles 1575 · Roda JC 1570

	Heracles	Draw	Roda JC
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	65%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Heracles: 4-2-0.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heracles	Roda JC
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.9	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 8.1	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +5’	1.42	4.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heracles 4–2–0 Roda JC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Heracles	1-0 HT 1-0	Roda JC
11/12/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	1-3 HT 1-1	Heracles
18/10/22 Netherlands Cup	Roda JC	2-2 HT 1-0	Heracles
02/03/18 Netherlands Eredivisie	Roda JC	0-3 HT 0-2	Heracles
23/09/17 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heracles	2-1 HT 0-1	Roda JC
11/02/17 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heracles	2-2 HT 0-0	Roda JC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	13	9	1	3	36	21	28
3	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	25
4	Roda JC	13	7	4	2	17	12	25
5	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	19
8	FC Den Bosch	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	AZ Reserves	13	5	2	6	32	28	17
11	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	RKC	13	3	7	3	22	19	16
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
15	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
16	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	12
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	11
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heracles	Roda JC
NAC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Maastricht	5-1 W	1-1 D
RKC	3-0 W	2-0 W
Vitesse	2-0 W	1-0 W
Almere City FC	0-1 L	3-2 W
AZ Reserves	3-2 W	2-1 W
FC Utrecht Reserves	6-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Heracles (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heracles

WWWWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
18/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	5-1	9	1	W
09/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
02/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	12	9	D
26/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
18/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	0	L
11/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	8	2	W
04/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
30/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
24/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	5-0	6-1	7	1	W

Roda JC

DDWDWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	3-2	14	0	W
19/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
09/10	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
04/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
26/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
18/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
12/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heracles vs Roda JC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heracles win (64%). Probabilities: Heracles 64%, draw 21%, Roda JC 14%.

How many goals are expected in Heracles vs Roda JC?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Heracles 2.05 · Roda JC 0.86), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Heracles vs Roda JC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.