Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: VVV vs PSV Reserves

Team pages: VVV · PSV Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

VVV2.15

PSV Reserves1.26

1X2

57% 22% 21%

VVV Draw PSV Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

VVV 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWDWW

PSV Reserves 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDLDLW

Head-to-head

VVV 2–1–3 PSV Reserves (6 last)

PSV Reserves1-0VVV
VVV0-2PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves1-2VVV
VVV0-2PSV Reserves
VVV3-2PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves0-0VVV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VVV 1540 · PSV Reserves 1499

	VVV	Draw	PSV Reserves
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VVV (rating 1540 vs 1499).
H2H favours PSV Reserves: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VVV	PSV Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.49 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:17 +1’	1.61	4.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +6’	1.59	4.49	4.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VVV 2–1–3 PSV Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	VVV
15/08/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	VVV	0-2 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
27/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-2 HT 0-1	VVV
20/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	VVV	0-2 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
02/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	VVV	3-2 HT 1-1	PSV Reserves
22/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	VVV

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	13	9	1	3	36	21	28
3	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	25
4	Roda JC	13	7	4	2	17	12	25
5	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	19
8	FC Den Bosch	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	AZ Reserves	13	5	2	6	32	28	17
11	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	RKC	13	3	7	3	22	19	16
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
15	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
16	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	12
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	11
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VVV	PSV Reserves
FC Dordrecht	4-2 W	0-1 L
AZ Reserves	4-4 D	1-1 D
Ajax Reserves	3-0 W	1-1 D
Roda JC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Top Oss	3-1 W	1-0 W
Helmond Sport	2-4 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: VVV (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VVV

WLWWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
24/10	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	4-2	2	5	W
16/10	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	4-4	7	7	D
09/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
04/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
26/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-3	7	1	L
18/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	4	2	W
11/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
04/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	2-4	8	5	L
30/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-0	3	6	W

PSV Reserves

WDDWLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
19/10	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
09/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
19/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
14/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
11/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VVV vs PSV Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VVV win (57%). Probabilities: VVV 57%, draw 22%, PSV Reserves 21%.

How many goals are expected in VVV vs PSV Reserves?

The model expects 3.41 goals (VVV 2.15 · PSV Reserves 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VVV vs PSV Reserves?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.