Prediction: Toulouse vs Lille
- Toulouse0-4Lille
- Lille2-1Toulouse
- Toulouse1-2Lille
- Lille2-1Toulouse
- Toulouse3-1Lille
- Lille1-1Toulouse
| Toulouse | Draw | Lille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lille (rating 1486 vs 1596).
- H2H favours Lille: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toulouse | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toulouse 1–1–4 Lille
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Lille |
| 14/09/25 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Toulouse |
| 12/04/25 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Lille |
| 05/10/24 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Toulouse |
| 25/02/24 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Lille |
| 12/11/23 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Toulouse |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Lille | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Angers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 11 | Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 13 | Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Toulouse | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toulouse | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Lens | 2-3 L | 3-0 W |
| PSG | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lille (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toulouse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 17/04 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 15/03 | Metz France Ligue 1 |
3-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
Lille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toulouse vs Lille?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lille win (43%). Probabilities: Toulouse 29%, draw 28%, Lille 43%.
How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Lille?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Toulouse 1.18 · Lille 1.5), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.