Prediction: Lille vs PSG
- PSG3-0Lille
- Lille1-1PSG
- PSG4-1Lille
- Lille1-3PSG
- PSG3-1Lille
- Lille1-1PSG
| Lille | Draw | PSG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lille (rating 1578 vs 1529).
- H2H favours PSG: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lille | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.2 | 4.2 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 2.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lille 0–2–4 PSG
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/26 France Ligue 1 | PSG | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Lille |
| 05/10/25 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PSG |
| 01/03/25 France Ligue 1 | PSG | 4-1 HT 4-0 | Lille |
| 01/09/24 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 1-3 HT 0-2 | PSG |
| 10/02/24 France Ligue 1 | PSG | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Lille |
| 17/12/23 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PSG |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Angers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lille | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Monaco | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Paris FC | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Nice | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Toulouse | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Lens | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lille (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
PSG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/05 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Nantes France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 6 | L |
| 03/04 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/03 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lille vs PSG?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSG win (54%). Probabilities: Lille 21%, draw 25%, PSG 54%.
How many goals are expected in Lille vs PSG?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Lille 0.95 · PSG 1.67), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lille vs PSG?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.