Football · France Ligue 1 · 04/09, 19:00

Prediction: Lyon vs Auxerre

Team pages: Lyon · Auxerre

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Lyon1.91
Auxerre0.88
1X2
61% 23% 16%
Lyon Draw Auxerre
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Lyon 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
LDWWWWLLWD
Auxerre 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
WDDDLWWWLL
Head-to-head
Lyon 3–2–1 Auxerre (6 last)
  • Lyon3-2Auxerre
  • Auxerre0-0Lyon
  • Auxerre1-3Lyon
  • Lyon2-2Auxerre
  • Auxerre2-1Lyon
  • Lyon2-1Auxerre
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lyon 1516 · Auxerre 1507
LyonDrawAuxerre
Our model60%24%16%
Market62%22%17%
Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Lyon: 3-2-1.
  • High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

LyonAuxerre
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 1.41.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.60.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/50/20%40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)3.4 / 6.93.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4 / 0.23.8 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyon 321 Auxerre

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DateHomeScoreAway
25/04/26
France Ligue 1
Lyon3-2
HT 1-1
Auxerre
23/11/25
France Ligue 1
Auxerre0-0
HT 0-0
Lyon
13/04/25
France Ligue 1
Auxerre1-3
HT 0-0
Lyon
27/10/24
France Ligue 1
Lyon2-2
HT 1-0
Auxerre
17/02/23
France Ligue 1
Auxerre2-1
HT 0-1
Lyon
31/08/22
France Ligue 1
Lyon2-1
HT 1-0
Auxerre

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Lille 2110 424
2 Lyon 2110 314
3 Troyes 2110 214
4 Marseille 1100 403
5 Lens 2101 643
6 Monaco 1100 103
7 Angers 2101 333
8 Strasbourg 2101 253
9 PSG 2020 442
9 Brest 2020 442
11 Le Mans 1010 221
11 Rennes 1010 221
13 Nice 1010 001
13 Paris FC 1010 001
15 Lorient 2011 121
15 Le Havre 2011 121
17 Toulouse 2011 241
18 Auxerre 2002 380

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLyonAuxerre
Le Havre 1-1 D 1-1 D
Lens 0-4 L 2-5 L
Angers 0-0 D 1-3 L
Monaco 1-2 L 2-2 D
Record vs common 0 W 2 D 2 L 0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Auxerre (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lyon

LDWWWWLLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/08 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-1 52 D
22/08 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
0-0 2-0 53 W
17/05 Lens
France Ligue 1
0-3 0-4 205 L
10/05 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
0-1 1-2 88 L
03/05 Rennes
France Ligue 1
2-1 4-2 73 W
25/04 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
1-1 3-2 63 W
19/04 PSG
France Ligue 1
2-0 2-1 56 W
12/04 Lorient
France Ligue 1
0-0 2-0 45 W
05/04 Angers
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 73 D
22/03 Monaco
France Ligue 1
1-0 1-2 24 L

Auxerre

WDDDLWWWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/08 Angers
France Ligue 1
1-1 1-3 75 L
22/08 Lens
France Ligue 1
0-1 2-5 73 L
17/05 Lille
France Ligue 1
1-0 2-0 25 W
10/05 Nice
France Ligue 1
1-1 2-1 101 W
03/05 Angers
France Ligue 1
1-0 3-1 46 W
25/04 Lyon
France Ligue 1
1-1 2-3 33 L
19/04 Monaco
France Ligue 1
2-0 2-2 35 D
11/04 Nantes
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 34 D
05/04 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
1-1 1-1 54 D
21/03 Brest
France Ligue 1
1-0 3-0 65 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lyon vs Auxerre?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lyon win (61%). Probabilities: Lyon 61%, draw 23%, Auxerre 16%.

How many goals are expected in Lyon vs Auxerre?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Lyon 1.91 · Auxerre 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Auxerre?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.