Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 26/07, 01:00

Prediction: Sporting San Jose vs Alajuelense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Sporting San Jose1.12

Alajuelense1.33

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Sporting San Jose Draw Alajuelense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting San Jose 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLLWLD

Alajuelense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWDWLL

Head-to-head

Sporting San Jose 1–1–4 Alajuelense (6 last)

Sporting San Jose0-2Alajuelense
Alajuelense1-2Sporting San Jose
Alajuelense2-0Sporting San Jose

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting San Jose 1469 · Alajuelense 1510

	Sporting San Jose	Draw	Alajuelense
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	31%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alajuelense (rating 1469 vs 1510).
H2H favours Alajuelense: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting San Jose	Alajuelense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:25 +9’	2.90	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting San Jose 1–1–4 Alajuelense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Sporting San Jose	0-2 HT 0-1	Alajuelense
16/02/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Alajuelense	1-2 HT 0-2	Sporting San Jose
23/11/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Alajuelense	2-0 HT 2-0	Sporting San Jose
28/07/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Sporting San Jose	1-2 HT 0-1	Alajuelense
17/04/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Alajuelense	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting San Jose
13/02/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Sporting San Jose	0-1 HT 0-1	Alajuelense

Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD San Carlos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Escorpiones de Belen FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cartagines	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Herediano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Saprissa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Inter San Carlos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alajuelense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Municipal Perez Zeledon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Puntarenas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting San Jose	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting San Jose	Alajuelense
Herediano	0-0 D	0-1 L
Municipal Liberia	0-1 L	1-2 L
Puntarenas	2-1 W	5-2 W
Deportivo Saprissa	1-3 L	1-1 D
Guadalupe FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alajuelense (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sporting San Jose

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
22/04	Municipal Liberia Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
19/04	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
16/04	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Cup	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
12/04	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-2	3	9	L
03/04	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	2-3	4	8	L
29/03	Puntarenas Costa Rica Cup	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
25/03	Puntarenas Costa Rica Cup	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
21/03	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
15/03	AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	6	W

Alajuelense

DWLLDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/07	Herediano Costa Rica Super Cup	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
27/04	Municipal Liberia Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/04	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	3-1	5-2	6	4	W
20/04	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
12/04	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
06/04	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
22/03	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
18/03	Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
14/03	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
11/03	Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup	1-0	1-1	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting San Jose vs Alajuelense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alajuelense win (40%). Probabilities: Sporting San Jose 31%, draw 29%, Alajuelense 40%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting San Jose vs Alajuelense?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Sporting San Jose 1.12 · Alajuelense 1.33), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting San Jose vs Alajuelense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.