Prediction: Toluca vs Atlas
- Toluca1-1Atlas
- Atlas0-0Toluca
- Atlas2-3Toluca
- Toluca4-1Atlas
- Toluca4-1Atlas
- Atlas0-0Toluca
| Toluca | Draw | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1557 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Toluca: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.6 | 3.4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca 3–3–0 Atlas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Atlas |
| 02/11/25 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 13/04/25 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Toluca |
| 29/09/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Atlas |
| 07/04/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Atlas |
| 27/08/23 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 16 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Toluca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Tijuana | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Atlas | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 7 | Queretaro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Leon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Puebla | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| 12 | Unam Pumas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
| 14 | Atlante | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 6 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Queretaro | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Atlante | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Leon | 4-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 04/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
Atlas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca vs Atlas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca win (60%). Probabilities: Toluca 60%, draw 24%, Atlas 16%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Atlas?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Toluca 1.81 · Atlas 0.83), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Atlas?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.