Football · Mexico Liga MX · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Leon vs Atletico San Luis

Team pages: Leon · Atletico San Luis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Leon1.6

Atletico San Luis1.3

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Leon Draw Atletico San Luis

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Leon 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWWWD

Atletico San Luis 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDLDWL

Head-to-head

Leon 4–2 Atletico San Luis (6 last)

Atletico San Luis1-2Leon
Leon0-1Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis1-2Leon
Leon1-0Atletico San Luis
Leon1-0Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis3-2Leon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leon 1576 · Atletico San Luis 1442

	Leon	Draw	Atletico San Luis
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leon (rating 1576 vs 1442).
H2H favours Leon: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leon	Atletico San Luis
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	2.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.6	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +26’	2.15	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon 4–0–2 Atletico San Luis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	1-2 HT 1-1	Leon
14/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico San Luis
17/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	1-2 HT 1-1	Leon
22/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico San Luis
25/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico San Luis
24/11/23 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	3-2 HT 2-1	Leon

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Chivas Guadalajara	7	4	2	1	12	6	14
3	Toluca	6	4	1	1	12	4	13
4	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
5	Atlas	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	Cruz Azul	7	4	0	3	12	11	12
7	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
8	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
9	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
10	Monterrey	6	3	0	3	13	10	9
11	Pachuca	7	2	2	3	10	8	8
12	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
13	Necaxa	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Atlante	7	1	4	2	7	9	7
15	Tigres UANL	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
16	Atletico San Luis	7	1	3	3	8	13	6
17	Santos Laguna	7	0	1	6	4	12	1
18	Juarez FC	7	0	0	7	3	21	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leon	Atletico San Luis
Monterrey	2-0 W	3-1 W
Pachuca	1-0 W	1-1 D
Tijuana	0-1 L	0-0 D
Club America	2-3 L	0-3 L
Juarez FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leon

WWLLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	12	W
25/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
18/07	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
26/04	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-4	7	8	L
22/04	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-2	2-3	9	2	L
19/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
11/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Atletico San Luis

LWLLDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
31/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
24/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
17/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
01/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/07	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
18/07	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-3	4	3	L
26/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
23/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
18/04	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leon vs Atletico San Luis?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leon win (43%). Probabilities: Leon 43%, draw 27%, Atletico San Luis 30%.

How many goals are expected in Leon vs Atletico San Luis?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Leon 1.6 · Atletico San Luis 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leon vs Atletico San Luis?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.