Football · Mexico Liga MX · 14/09, 03:07
Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara vs Unam Pumas
Team pages: Chivas Guadalajara · Unam Pumas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Chivas Guadalajara2.01
Unam Pumas0.9
1X2
Chivas Guadalajara
Draw
Unam Pumas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Chivas Guadalajara
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Unam Pumas
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chivas Guadalajara
3–2–1
Unam Pumas
(6 last)
- Chivas Guadalajara2-2Unam Pumas
- Unam Pumas1-2Chivas Guadalajara
- Unam Pumas0-1Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara0-0Unam Pumas
- Chivas Guadalajara3-1Unam Pumas
- Unam Pumas3-0Chivas Guadalajara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chivas Guadalajara 1548 · Unam Pumas 1486
| Chivas Guadalajara | Draw | Unam Pumas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1548 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chivas Guadalajara | Unam Pumas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.7 | 2.4 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara 3–2–1 Unam Pumas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Unam Pumas |
| 06/10/25 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 02/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 03/11/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Unam Pumas |
| 25/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Unam Pumas |
| 04/12/23 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Unam Pumas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 11 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | Leon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlante | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 6 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chivas Guadalajara | Unam Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| Pachuca | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Tijuana | 5-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Juarez FC | 1-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Toluca | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Cruz Azul | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 26/07 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 19 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
Unam Pumas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
3-1 | 5-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 19/07 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 25/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara vs Unam Pumas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara win (62%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara 62%, draw 22%, Unam Pumas 15%.
How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara vs Unam Pumas?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Chivas Guadalajara 2.01 · Unam Pumas 0.9), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara vs Unam Pumas?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.