Football · Mexico Liga MX · 13/09, 03:10

Prediction: Monterrey vs Tigres UANL

Team pages: Monterrey · Tigres UANL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Monterrey1.59

Tigres UANL1.29

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Monterrey Draw Tigres UANL

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Monterrey 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWWLL

Tigres UANL 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLLWDD

Head-to-head

Monterrey 2–2–2 Tigres UANL (6 last)

Tigres UANL1-0Monterrey
Monterrey1-1Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL2-1Monterrey
Monterrey4-2Tigres UANL
Monterrey1-1Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL1-2Monterrey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monterrey 1494 · Tigres UANL 1495

	Monterrey	Draw	Tigres UANL
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monterrey	Tigres UANL
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	3.9 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.29 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.16

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +7’	2.50	3.30	2.63
07:27 +6’	2.15▼	3.40▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:27 +115’	2.29	3.37	3.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterrey 2–2–2 Tigres UANL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-0 HT 0-0	Monterrey
02/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-1 HT 1-0	Tigres UANL
13/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	2-1 HT 0-0	Monterrey
20/10/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	4-2 HT 3-2	Tigres UANL
13/05/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-1 HT 0-1	Tigres UANL
10/05/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-2 HT 1-1	Monterrey

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Chivas Guadalajara	7	4	2	1	12	6	14
3	Toluca	6	4	1	1	12	4	13
4	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
5	Atlas	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	Cruz Azul	7	4	0	3	12	11	12
7	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
8	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
9	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
10	Monterrey	6	3	0	3	13	10	9
11	Pachuca	7	2	2	3	10	8	8
12	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
13	Necaxa	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Atlante	7	1	4	2	7	9	7
15	Tigres UANL	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
16	Atletico San Luis	7	1	3	3	8	13	6
17	Santos Laguna	7	0	1	6	4	12	1
18	Juarez FC	7	0	0	7	3	21	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monterrey	Tigres UANL
Atletico San Luis	1-3 L	2-2 D
Atlas	2-0 W	1-2 L
Necaxa	1-2 L	1-1 D
Santos Laguna	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monterrey

DLWLWLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	14	3	L
22/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
16/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	4-1	6-1	10	0	W
02/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
27/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-2	5	0	W
27/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
22/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
19/04	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-3	7	6	L
12/04	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Tigres UANL

WWLLDLLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	16	4	L
02/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	11	9	L
26/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
17/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
10/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
03/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
26/04	Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX	1-0	5-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monterrey win (43%). Probabilities: Monterrey 43%, draw 27%, Tigres UANL 30%.

How many goals are expected in Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Monterrey 1.59 · Tigres UANL 1.29), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.