Football · Mexico Liga MX · 16/09, 03:00
Prediction: Puebla vs Toluca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Puebla1.26
Toluca1.72
1X2
Puebla
Draw
Toluca
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Puebla
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Toluca
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puebla
1–2–3
Toluca
(6 last)
- Puebla0-0Toluca
- Toluca3-1Puebla
- Puebla0-3Toluca
- Toluca5-0Puebla
- Puebla1-1Toluca
- Toluca0-1Puebla
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1465 vs 1589).
- H2H favours Toluca: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puebla | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4 | 3.2 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla 1–2–3 Toluca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 14/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Puebla |
| 15/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Toluca |
| 23/10/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Puebla |
| 27/01/24 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Toluca |
| 01/11/23 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Puebla |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Unam Pumas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 11 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | Leon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlante | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 6 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Puebla | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Pachuca | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Chivas Guadalajara | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Juarez FC | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Queretaro | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puebla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 04/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puebla vs Toluca?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca win (47%). Probabilities: Puebla 27%, draw 26%, Toluca 47%.
How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Toluca?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Puebla 1.26 · Toluca 1.72), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Puebla vs Toluca?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.