Football · Mexico Liga MX · 10/10, 03:00

Prediction: Puebla vs Leon

Team pages: Puebla · Leon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Puebla1.17

Leon1.39

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Puebla Draw Leon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Puebla 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWLDL

Leon 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDLWDW

Head-to-head

Puebla 2–1–3 Leon (6 last)

Puebla0-1Leon
Leon1-2Puebla
Leon1-0Puebla
Puebla2-2Leon
Leon2-1Puebla
Puebla5-4Leon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Puebla 1465 · Leon 1538

	Puebla	Draw	Leon
Our model	30%	29%	41%
Market	31%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leon (rating 1465 vs 1538).
H2H favours Leon: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Puebla	Leon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.46 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:54 +4’	3.00	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:04 +1374’	2.95	3.30	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla 2–1–3 Leon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	0-1 HT 0-0	Leon
09/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-2 HT 1-2	Puebla
13/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-0 HT 0-0	Puebla
17/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	2-2 HT 1-1	Leon
17/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-1 HT 1-0	Puebla
04/11/23 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	5-4 HT 1-3	Leon

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	23	12	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
3	Chivas Guadalajara	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
5	Leon	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	16	17	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
12	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10	13	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Puebla	Leon
Atlante	1-1 D	1-1 D
Necaxa	1-0 W	2-1 W
Pachuca	3-2 W	1-0 W
Juarez FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Puebla

WLDWWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
19/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
12/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
23/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-2	6	1	W
18/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	3	0	W
01/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	1	0	D
22/07	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
18/07	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

Leon

LLWWWDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
21/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
15/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
11/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
29/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	12	W
25/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
18/07	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Puebla vs Leon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leon win (41%). Probabilities: Puebla 31%, draw 28%, Leon 41%.

How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Leon?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Puebla 1.17 · Leon 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Puebla vs Leon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.