Football · Mexico Liga MX · 11/10, 01:00

Prediction: Juarez FC vs Tijuana

Team pages: Juarez FC · Tijuana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Juarez FC1.39

Tijuana1.58

1X2

32% 27% 41%

Juarez FC Draw Tijuana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Juarez FC 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Tijuana 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWLDL

Head-to-head

Juarez FC 1–2–3 Tijuana (6 last)

Juarez FC1-2Tijuana
Tijuana3-1Juarez FC
Tijuana1-1Juarez FC
Tijuana1-2Juarez FC
Juarez FC1-1Tijuana
Juarez FC0-1Tijuana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juarez FC 1410 · Tijuana 1501

	Juarez FC	Draw	Tijuana
Our model	33%	27%	41%
Market	32%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tijuana (rating 1410 vs 1501).
H2H favours Tijuana: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juarez FC	Tijuana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.96
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.36 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +24’	2.90	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:01 +141’	2.96	3.48	2.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juarez FC 1–2–3 Tijuana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Tijuana
21/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	3-1 HT 1-1	Juarez FC
26/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	1-1 HT 0-0	Juarez FC
15/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	1-2 HT 1-1	Juarez FC
07/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Tijuana
15/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Tijuana

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	23	12	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
3	Chivas Guadalajara	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
5	Leon	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	16	17	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
12	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10	13	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juarez FC	Tijuana
Leon	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tigres UANL	2-0 W	3-1 W
Pachuca	0-2 L	2-2 D
Unam Pumas	1-5 L	2-0 W
Chivas Guadalajara	0-1 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tijuana (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juarez FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
19/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
14/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
05/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	10	L
31/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
22/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-4	1-6	0	0	L
01/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-3	1-5	2	3	L
26/07	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

Tijuana

DWWDWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
21/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	0	3	D
12/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
29/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
23/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	4	4	L
17/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
25/07	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
17/07	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	1	7	W
26/04	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juarez FC vs Tijuana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tijuana win (41%). Probabilities: Juarez FC 32%, draw 27%, Tijuana 41%.

How many goals are expected in Juarez FC vs Tijuana?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Juarez FC 1.39 · Tijuana 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juarez FC vs Tijuana?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.