Football · Mexico Liga MX · 11/10, 03:00

Prediction: Atlas vs Chivas Guadalajara

Team pages: Atlas · Chivas Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Atlas1.23

Chivas Guadalajara1.5

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Atlas Draw Chivas Guadalajara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLDLDW

Chivas Guadalajara 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Atlas 0–3–3 Chivas Guadalajara (6 last)

Chivas Guadalajara1-0Atlas
Atlas1-2Chivas Guadalajara
Atlas0-0Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara4-1Atlas
Atlas1-1Chivas Guadalajara
Atlas0-0Chivas Guadalajara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlas 1491 · Chivas Guadalajara 1557

	Atlas	Draw	Chivas Guadalajara
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1491 vs 1557).
H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 3-3-0.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlas	Chivas Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.5	3.9 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.7	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.27 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +1’	3.00	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:04 +1299’	3.27	3.42	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlas 0–3–3 Chivas Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/26 America Friendlies	Chivas Guadalajara	1-0 HT 0-0	Atlas
08/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	1-2 HT 1-0	Chivas Guadalajara
04/01/26 America Friendlies	Atlas	0-0 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara
26/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	4-1 HT 3-0	Atlas
20/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	1-1 HT 1-1	Chivas Guadalajara
28/12/24 America Friendlies	Atlas	0-0 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	23	12	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
3	Chivas Guadalajara	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
5	Leon	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	16	17	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
12	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10	13	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlas	Chivas Guadalajara
Tijuana	3-2 W	5-2 W
Unam Pumas	1-1 D	3-0 W
Toluca	2-5 L	0-2 L
Queretaro	1-3 L	0-2 L
Santos Laguna	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlas

WWLWWLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	11	4	W
20/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
13/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	8	4	L
06/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
23/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
02/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	6	10	L
26/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
18/07	Leon Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-2	2	5	W

Chivas Guadalajara

LWDWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	13	3	L
20/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
14/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
06/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
30/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
23/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
17/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	7	0	D
26/07	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	19	3	W
19/07	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlas vs Chivas Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara win (43%). Probabilities: Atlas 30%, draw 27%, Chivas Guadalajara 43%.

How many goals are expected in Atlas vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Atlas 1.23 · Chivas Guadalajara 1.5), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlas vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.