Football · Mexico Liga MX · 11/10, 05:00

Prediction: Club America vs Monterrey

Team pages: Club America · Monterrey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Club America1.81

Monterrey1.18

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Club America Draw Monterrey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Club America 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWLDW

Monterrey 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLDWL

Head-to-head

Club America 2–2–2 Monterrey (6 last)

Club America2-2Monterrey
Club America1-0Monterrey
Club America2-1Monterrey
Monterrey2-0Club America
Monterrey2-2Club America
Monterrey1-0Club America

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club America 1558 · Monterrey 1503

	Club America	Draw	Monterrey
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club America (rating 1558 vs 1503).
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club America	Monterrey
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.9	3.1 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.42 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +1’	1.83	3.60	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:04 +1180’	1.85	3.48	4.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club America 2–2–2 Monterrey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Leagues Cup	Club America	2-2 HT 0-0	Monterrey
08/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	1-0 HT 0-0	Monterrey
30/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-1 HT 1-0	Monterrey
27/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-0 HT 1-0	Club America
21/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-2 HT 2-0	Club America
17/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-0 HT 0-0	Club America

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	23	12	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
3	Chivas Guadalajara	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
5	Leon	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	16	17	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
12	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10	13	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club America	Monterrey
Necaxa	4-2 W	1-2 L
Cruz Azul	3-4 L	1-0 W
Juarez FC	2-1 W	6-1 W
Atletico San Luis	3-0 W	1-3 L
Santos Laguna	3-0 W	3-2 W
Atlante	1-1 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club America (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club America

DWDWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-2	4-2	5	5	W
20/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
13/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-3	3-4	9	7	L
30/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
22/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
17/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	10	4	W
03/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
25/07	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
19/07	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	12	9	W
11/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	2-3	3-3	16	4	D

Monterrey

LWLWWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
20/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
13/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
31/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	14	3	L
22/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
16/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	4-1	6-1	10	0	W
02/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
27/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-2	5	0	W
27/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club America vs Monterrey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club America win (51%). Probabilities: Club America 51%, draw 26%, Monterrey 23%.

How many goals are expected in Club America vs Monterrey?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Club America 1.81 · Monterrey 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club America vs Monterrey?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.