Football · Mexico Liga MX · 21/10, 05:00

Prediction: Tigres UANL vs Leon

Team pages: Tigres UANL · Leon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Tigres UANL1.44

Leon1.09

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Tigres UANL Draw Leon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tigres UANL 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDLWWD

Leon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDWDL

Head-to-head

Tigres UANL 3–2–1 Leon (6 last)

Leon1-2Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL0-0Leon
Leon1-0Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL2-2Leon
Leon1-2Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL1-0Leon

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tigres UANL: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tigres UANL	Leon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.6	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.84

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:39

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.81 → 1.88▲	Pinn 1.88
X	3.71 → 3.76▲	Pinn 3.76
2	4.13 → 3.95▼	Pinn 3.95

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +8’	1.81	3.71	4.13
04:13 +6’	1.83▲	3.75▲	4.19▲
12:03 +37’	1.88▲	3.76▲	3.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tigres UANL 3–2–1 Leon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-2 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
14/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	0-0 HT 0-0	Leon
23/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-0 HT 1-0	Tigres UANL
28/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	2-2 HT 1-1	Leon
18/01/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-2 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
16/07/23 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-0 HT 1-0	Leon

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
6	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	5	2	4	22	21	17
8	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
9	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
10	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
11	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
12	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	11	3	4	4	18	14	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tigres UANL	Leon
Puebla	1-0 W	1-1 D
Juarez FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Monterrey	0-0 D	2-0 W
Necaxa	1-1 D	2-1 W
Atlante	2-0 W	1-1 D
Queretaro	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Leon (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tigres UANL

LLWDDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
27/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
19/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
13/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
06/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
16/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	16	4	L
02/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	11	9	L

Leon

WWWDLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-2	3-5	7	8	L
10/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
21/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
15/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
11/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
29/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	12	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tigres UANL vs Leon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tigres UANL win (44%). Probabilities: Tigres UANL 44%, draw 29%, Leon 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tigres UANL vs Leon?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Tigres UANL 1.44 · Leon 1.09), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Leon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.