Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/10, 03:00

Prediction: Puebla vs Monterrey

Team pages: Puebla · Monterrey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Puebla1.23

Monterrey1.58

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Puebla Draw Monterrey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Puebla 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Monterrey 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Puebla 0–2–4 Monterrey (6 last)

Monterrey2-1Puebla
Puebla2-4Monterrey
Monterrey1-1Puebla
Puebla1-2Monterrey
Monterrey2-0Puebla
Puebla1-1Monterrey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Puebla 1484 · Monterrey 1507

	Puebla	Draw	Monterrey
Our model	29%	27%	44%
Market	29%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Monterrey: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Puebla	Monterrey
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.4	3.2 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:01 +2’	3.25	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla 0–2–4 Monterrey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-1 HT 2-1	Puebla
30/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	2-4 HT 1-2	Monterrey
13/01/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-1 HT 1-0	Puebla
17/08/24 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	1-2 HT 0-1	Monterrey
14/01/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-0 HT 0-0	Puebla
04/10/23 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	1-1 HT 1-1	Monterrey

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
6	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	5	2	4	22	21	17
8	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
9	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
10	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
11	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
12	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	11	3	4	4	18	14	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Puebla	Monterrey
Leon	1-1 D	0-2 L
Tigres UANL	0-1 L	0-0 D
Atlante	1-1 D	2-4 L
Necaxa	1-0 W	1-2 L
Club America	0-2 L	1-1 D
Santos Laguna	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Puebla (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Puebla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
27/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
19/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
12/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
23/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-2	6	1	W
18/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	3	0	W
01/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	1	0	D

Monterrey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
20/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
13/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
31/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	14	3	L
22/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
16/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	4-1	6-1	10	0	W
02/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
27/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-2	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Puebla vs Monterrey?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Monterrey win (44%). Probabilities: Puebla 29%, draw 27%, Monterrey 44%.

How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Monterrey?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Puebla 1.23 · Monterrey 1.58), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Puebla vs Monterrey?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.