Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/10, 05:10

Prediction: Santos Laguna vs Unam Pumas

Team pages: Santos Laguna · Unam Pumas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Santos Laguna1.7

Unam Pumas1.44

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Santos Laguna Draw Unam Pumas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Santos Laguna 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWWWW

Unam Pumas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLDLDW

Head-to-head

Santos Laguna 2–1–3 Unam Pumas (6 last)

Unam Pumas4-0Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna3-0Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas2-0Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna1-1Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas3-0Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna2-1Unam Pumas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos Laguna 1526 · Unam Pumas 1514

	Santos Laguna	Draw	Unam Pumas
Our model	43%	26%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Unam Pumas: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos Laguna	Unam Pumas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.5	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

23.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.64 ★
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +3’	2.20	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +15’	2.39	3.56	2.77
02:11 +11’	2.25▼	3.64▲	3.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos Laguna 2–1–3 Unam Pumas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	4-0 HT 4-0	Santos Laguna
13/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	3-0 HT 1-0	Unam Pumas
17/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	2-0 HT 1-0	Santos Laguna
14/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	1-1 HT 1-1	Unam Pumas
19/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	3-0 HT 2-0	Santos Laguna
03/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	2-1 HT 2-1	Unam Pumas

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
6	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	5	2	4	22	21	17
8	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
9	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
10	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
11	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
12	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	11	3	4	4	18	14	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos Laguna	Unam Pumas
Queretaro	5-0 W	0-0 D
Atletico San Luis	2-1 W	2-3 L
Juarez FC	2-1 W	5-1 W
Cruz Azul	0-1 L	3-3 D
Chivas Guadalajara	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santos Laguna (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santos Laguna

LLLDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
12/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
27/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
21/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
14/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	12	8	W
07/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
30/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
23/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	7	1	L
17/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	11	1	L

Unam Pumas

WDDLWLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
27/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	11	3	L
20/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
14/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
11/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
24/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
16/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	3-1	5-1	0	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos Laguna vs Unam Pumas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos Laguna win (43%). Probabilities: Santos Laguna 43%, draw 26%, Unam Pumas 31%.

How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna vs Unam Pumas?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Santos Laguna 1.7 · Unam Pumas 1.44), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos Laguna vs Unam Pumas?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.