Football · Mexico Liga MX · 08/11, 00:00

Prediction: Atlas vs Pachuca

Team pages: Atlas · Pachuca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Atlas1.84

Pachuca1.52

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Atlas Draw Pachuca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDWLWW

Pachuca 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDLLWW

Head-to-head

Atlas 1–1–4 Pachuca (6 last)

Pachuca3-1Atlas
Atlas0-3Pachuca
Pachuca0-0Atlas
Atlas2-0Pachuca
Pachuca4-3Atlas
Atlas0-2Pachuca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlas 1503 · Pachuca 1529

	Atlas	Draw	Pachuca
Our model	44%	24%	31%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pachuca: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlas	Pachuca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.5	5.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.21
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.55 ★
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +5’	2.15	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +17’	2.21	3.55	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlas 1–1–4 Pachuca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	3-1 HT 2-0	Atlas
10/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	0-3 HT 0-3	Pachuca
02/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-0 HT 0-0	Atlas
14/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	2-0 HT 2-0	Pachuca
01/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	4-3 HT 3-2	Atlas
02/11/23 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	0-2 HT 0-1	Pachuca

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	15	8	5	2	36	21	29
2	Chivas Guadalajara	15	8	5	2	25	14	29
3	Cruz Azul	15	9	2	4	34	24	29
4	Atlas	15	8	3	4	26	26	27
5	Toluca	15	6	6	3	31	21	24
6	Tijuana	15	5	7	3	25	21	22
7	Leon	15	6	4	5	22	20	22
8	Santos Laguna	15	7	1	7	21	20	22
9	Monterrey	14	6	3	5	26	21	21
10	Unam Pumas	15	5	5	5	22	24	20
11	Queretaro	14	6	2	6	18	21	20
12	Pachuca	15	5	4	6	25	19	19
13	Atletico San Luis	15	5	4	6	19	23	19
14	Puebla	15	4	4	7	17	23	16
15	Tigres UANL	15	3	6	6	15	22	15
16	Atlante	15	3	5	7	16	24	14
17	Necaxa	15	2	4	9	16	28	10
18	Juarez FC	15	2	2	11	12	34	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlas	Pachuca
Club America	2-5 L	2-1 W
Necaxa	2-0 W	3-3 D
Chivas Guadalajara	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tijuana	3-2 W	2-2 D
Atlante	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlas

LDLDWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	4-3	7	3	W
22/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-5	10	3	L
17/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
11/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
26/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	11	4	W
20/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
13/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	8	4	L
06/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	6	3	L

Pachuca

DWWDLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
22/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	0	8	L
19/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
12/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	5	8	D
27/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
21/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	10	3	D
12/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	3-0	3-0	5	6	W
05/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	3	10	W
30/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlas vs Pachuca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlas win (44%). Probabilities: Atlas 44%, draw 26%, Pachuca 30%.

How many goals are expected in Atlas vs Pachuca?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Atlas 1.84 · Pachuca 1.52), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlas vs Pachuca?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.