Football · Mexico Liga MX · 08/11, 02:00
Prediction: Toluca vs Monterrey
Team pages: Toluca · Monterrey
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Toluca1.95
Monterrey1.38
1X2
Toluca
Draw
Monterrey
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Toluca
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Monterrey
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toluca
4–2
Monterrey
(6 last)
- Monterrey2-1Toluca
- Toluca2-0Monterrey
- Monterrey0-1Toluca
- Toluca3-2Monterrey
- Monterrey1-0Toluca
- Toluca6-2Monterrey
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Toluca: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 15.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.6 | 3.2 / 7.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca 4–0–2 Monterrey
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/26 Club Friendly List | Monterrey | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 07/09/26 Leagues Cup | Toluca | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Monterrey |
| 11/01/26 Mexico Liga MX | Monterrey | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 07/12/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Monterrey |
| 04/12/25 Mexico Liga MX | Monterrey | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Toluca |
| 25/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 6-2 HT 4-2 | Monterrey |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 29 |
| 3 | Atlas | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 26 |
| 5 | Toluca | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 24 |
| 6 | Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 22 |
| 7 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 22 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 21 |
| 9 | Unam Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 20 |
| 10 | Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 19 |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 10 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 34 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Club America | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Leon | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Tijuana | 2-2 D | 3-3 D |
| Atletico San Luis | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Tigres UANL | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Cruz Azul | 3-3 D | 1-0 W |
| Puebla | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 5 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Monterrey (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 25/10 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/10 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-2 | 17 | 0 | D |
| 18/10 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 15 | 0 | D |
| 10/10 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/09 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Monterrey
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
2-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 25/10 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/10 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 19/10 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/08 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 1-3 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca vs Monterrey?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca win (50%). Probabilities: Toluca 50%, draw 24%, Monterrey 26%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Monterrey?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Toluca 1.95 · Monterrey 1.38), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Monterrey?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.