Prediction: Leon vs Chivas Guadalajara
Team pages: Leon · Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara5-0Leon
- Leon1-0Chivas Guadalajara
- Leon2-1Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara2-0Leon
- Chivas Guadalajara1-2Leon
- Chivas Guadalajara2-0Leon
| Leon | Draw | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 27% | 49% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1499 vs 1572).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leon | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.9 | 3.3 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon 3–0–3 Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Leon |
| 20/07/25 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 29/01/25 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 19/09/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Leon |
| 10/03/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Leon |
| 10/09/23 Club Friendly List | Chivas Guadalajara | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Leon |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | 30 |
| 3 | Chivas Guadalajara | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | 22 |
| 8 | Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | 22 |
| 9 | Leon | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| 11 | Unam Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
| 12 | Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | 19 |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | 13 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | 11 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Leon | Chivas Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Club America | 3-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Queretaro | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Atletico San Luis | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Unam Pumas | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Atlante | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 25/10 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/10 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 3-5 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/10 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 28/09 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 21/09 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 15/09 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/10 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 27/09 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/09 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leon vs Chivas Guadalajara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara win (49%). Probabilities: Leon 25%, draw 26%, Chivas Guadalajara 49%.
How many goals are expected in Leon vs Chivas Guadalajara?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Leon 1.14 · Chivas Guadalajara 1.67), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Leon vs Chivas Guadalajara?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.