Football · Mexico Liga MX · 09/11, 01:00

Prediction: Queretaro vs Puebla

Team pages: Queretaro · Puebla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Queretaro1.76

Puebla1.06

1X2

53% 26% 22%

Queretaro Draw Puebla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Queretaro 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLLLL

Puebla 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLDDLLL

Head-to-head

Queretaro 4–1–1 Puebla (6 last)

Puebla1-2Queretaro
Queretaro3-1Puebla
Queretaro2-0Puebla
Puebla2-1Queretaro
Puebla0-2Queretaro
Queretaro1-1Puebla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queretaro 1493 · Puebla 1425

	Queretaro	Draw	Puebla
Our model	53%	26%	22%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Queretaro (rating 1493 vs 1425).
H2H favours Queretaro: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queretaro	Puebla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	1.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 23:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.86 ★
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.83
2	4.10 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 5.3% Pinnacle margin 3.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +2’	1.75	3.70	4.10
04:38 +5’	1.75	3.80▲	4.50▲
08:14 +9’	1.80▲	3.75▼	4.20▼
06:17 +7’	1.83▲	3.70▼	4.20
20:01 +2’	1.80▼	3.75▲	4.33▲
22:00 +1’	1.83▲	3.70▼	4.20▼
22:59 +1’	1.80▼	3.75▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +7’	1.81	3.87	4.18
01:04 +24’	1.83▲	3.92▲	4.24▲
05:47 +37’	1.85▲	3.83▼	4.24
06:49 +24’	1.84▼	3.86▲	4.23▼
14:50 +7’	1.85▲	3.89▲	4.27▲
17:30 +24’	1.85▲	3.87▼	4.24▼
19:53 +10’	1.85▼	3.91▲	4.24
21:02 +1’	1.85▲	3.85▼	4.26▲
21:59 +2’	1.86▲	3.81▼	4.27▲
22:59 +2’	1.86	3.82▲	4.28▲
23:43 +17’	1.86	3.83▲	4.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queretaro 4–1–1 Puebla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	1-2 HT 1-0	Queretaro
05/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	3-1 HT 0-1	Puebla
02/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	2-0 HT 1-0	Puebla
14/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	2-1 HT 1-0	Queretaro
24/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	0-2 HT 0-0	Queretaro
18/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	1-1 HT 0-1	Puebla

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	37	26	32
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	38	23	30
3	Chivas Guadalajara	15	8	5	2	25	14	29
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	35	21	27
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	27	30	27
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	23	20	25
7	Pachuca	16	6	4	6	29	20	22
8	Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25	22	22
9	Leon	15	6	4	5	22	20	22
10	Monterrey	15	6	3	6	26	25	21
11	Unam Pumas	16	5	6	5	24	26	21
12	Queretaro	14	6	2	6	18	21	20
13	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19	24	19
14	Puebla	15	4	4	7	17	23	16
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	17	25	15
16	Atlante	16	3	5	8	16	26	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17	28	13
18	Juarez FC	16	3	2	11	13	34	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queretaro	Puebla
Atlante	2-0 W	1-1 D
Leon	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tijuana	1-0 W	0-0 D
Atlas	3-1 W	3-4 L
Toluca	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Queretaro (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queretaro

LWWDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
26/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-3	1-3	8	2	L
21/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	2	0	L
18/10	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-5	2	2	L
11/10	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
27/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
21/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
30/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
22/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	7	7	L

Puebla

LWLDLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
26/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-4	3	3	L
22/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-3	1-4	2	2	L
17/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
27/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
19/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
12/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queretaro vs Puebla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Queretaro win (53%). Probabilities: Queretaro 53%, draw 26%, Puebla 22%.

How many goals are expected in Queretaro vs Puebla?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Queretaro 1.76 · Puebla 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Queretaro vs Puebla?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.