Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 29/08, 16:30
Prediction: Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
Team pages: Excelsior · Sparta Rotterdam
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Excelsior1.7
Sparta Rotterdam1.49
1X2
Excelsior
Draw
Sparta Rotterdam
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Excelsior
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sparta Rotterdam
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excelsior
2–4
Sparta Rotterdam
(6 last)
- Sparta Rotterdam2-3Excelsior
- Excelsior0-1Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam4-2Excelsior
- Excelsior2-1Sparta Rotterdam
- Excelsior1-4Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam1-0Excelsior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excelsior 1555 · Sparta Rotterdam 1462
| Excelsior | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior (rating 1555 vs 1462).
- H2H favours Sparta Rotterdam: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.7 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excelsior 2–0–4 Sparta Rotterdam
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Excelsior |
| 14/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 17/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Excelsior |
| 01/10/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 05/03/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 14/01/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Excelsior |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | FC Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | PSV | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | NEC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | FC Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| PSV | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| FC Volendam | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| FC Utrecht | 5-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Feyenoord | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Excelsior (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/04 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 20/03 | Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Sparta Rotterdam
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 14/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/04 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 05/04 | NAC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 21/03 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Excelsior win (42%). Probabilities: Excelsior 42%, draw 25%, Sparta Rotterdam 33%.
How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Excelsior 1.7 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.