Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 29/08, 18:45

Prediction: AZ vs Go Ahead Eagles

Team pages: AZ · Go Ahead Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

AZ2.43

Go Ahead Eagles1.18

1X2

64% 20% 16%

AZ Draw Go Ahead Eagles

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

AZ 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Go Ahead Eagles 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AZ 2–4–0 Go Ahead Eagles (6 last)

Go Ahead Eagles0-0AZ
AZ2-2Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles0-3AZ
AZ1-1Go Ahead Eagles
AZ2-2Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles0-3AZ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AZ 1597 · Go Ahead Eagles 1570

	AZ	Draw	Go Ahead Eagles
Our model	64%	20%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AZ: 2-4-0.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ	Go Ahead Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 8	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.60

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.60 → 4.60	Pinn 5.29
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.73 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:21 +4’	1.44	4.60	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +3’	1.36	5.31	6.87
14:50 +3’	1.37▲	5.41▲	7.04▲
16:42	1.39▲	5.29▼	6.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ 2–4–0 Go Ahead Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	0-0 HT 0-0	AZ
07/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-2 HT 2-1	Go Ahead Eagles
04/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	0-3 HT 0-2	AZ
21/04/25 Netherlands Cup	AZ	1-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
27/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-2 HT 1-0	Go Ahead Eagles
12/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	0-3 HT 0-2	AZ

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	3	3	0	0	8	1	9
2	FC Groningen	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Go Ahead Eagles	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
4	Ajax	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	PSV	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
8	Fortuna Sittard	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Heerenveen	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
10	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
11	NEC	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
12	FC Twente	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
13	Telstar	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
14	PEC Zwolle	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
15	FC Utrecht	3	0	1	2	5	9	1
16	ADO Den Haag	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
17	Willem II	2	0	0	2	2	8	0
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ	Go Ahead Eagles
FC Utrecht	4-1 W	0-2 L
NAC	3-3 D	6-0 W
Feyenoord	1-1 D	2-2 D
FC Groningen	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Go Ahead Eagles (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	15	2	W
15/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	9	6	W
08/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
17/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-3	7	2	D
10/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
23/04	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
12/04	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
04/04	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-0	10	3	W
22/03	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-3	7	2	L

Go Ahead Eagles

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-2	6	0	D
08/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	3	W
17/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	8	0	L
03/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
23/04	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/04	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
05/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
22/03	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
15/03	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	6-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ vs Go Ahead Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ win (64%). Probabilities: AZ 64%, draw 20%, Go Ahead Eagles 16%.

How many goals are expected in AZ vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model expects 3.6 goals (AZ 2.43 · Go Ahead Eagles 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.