Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 10/10, 18:45

Prediction: Feyenoord vs AZ

Team pages: Feyenoord · AZ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Feyenoord2.08

AZ1.44

1X2

52% 23% 26%

Feyenoord Draw AZ

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Feyenoord 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDWWW

AZ 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Feyenoord 4–2–0 AZ (6 last)

Feyenoord1-1AZ
AZ3-3Feyenoord
AZ0-1Feyenoord
Feyenoord3-2AZ
Feyenoord2-0AZ
AZ0-1Feyenoord

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Feyenoord 1597 · AZ 1593

	Feyenoord	Draw	AZ
Our model	51%	23%	26%
Market	52%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Feyenoord: 4-2-0.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Feyenoord	AZ
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.9	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7	2.9 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.81
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.25 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:05 +5’	1.80	4.10	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:53 +197’	1.81	3.77	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Feyenoord 4–2–0 AZ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	1-1 HT 0-1	AZ
21/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	3-3 HT 1-1	Feyenoord
05/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	0-1 HT 0-1	Feyenoord
02/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	3-2 HT 0-1	AZ
07/02/24 Netherlands Cup	Feyenoord	2-0 HT 1-0	AZ
04/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	0-1 HT 0-1	Feyenoord

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	17
3	PSV	7	5	1	1	24	10	16
4	FC Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	11
8	FC Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
11	NEC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	7	1	2	4	10	19	5
15	FC Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Feyenoord	AZ
FC Utrecht	5-0 W	4-1 W
ADO Den Haag	2-2 D	2-0 W
Go Ahead Eagles	2-2 D	5-2 W
Fortuna Sittard	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AZ (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Feyenoord

WDWWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	5-0	6	4	W
13/09	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	7-0	6	0	W
05/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-1	1	3	W
30/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	11	3	D
23/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	4-0	5-2	3	1	W
16/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-2	6	0	D
09/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
17/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	12	0	W
10/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
03/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-1	8	6	W

AZ

DDDWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
06/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	3	3	W
29/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-2	8	0	W
22/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	15	2	W
15/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	9	6	W
08/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
17/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-3	7	2	D
10/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Feyenoord vs AZ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Feyenoord win (52%). Probabilities: Feyenoord 52%, draw 23%, AZ 26%.

How many goals are expected in Feyenoord vs AZ?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Feyenoord 2.08 · AZ 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs AZ?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.