Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 10/10, 21:00

Prediction: Ajax vs NEC

Team pages: Ajax · NEC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Ajax2.75

NEC0.98

1X2

73% 17% 10%

Ajax Draw NEC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWLWWD

NEC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Ajax 2–3–1 NEC (6 last)

Ajax1-1NEC
NEC2-2Ajax
Ajax0-3NEC
NEC1-2Ajax
Ajax2-2NEC
NEC1-2Ajax

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax 1603 · NEC 1446

	Ajax	Draw	NEC
Our model	74%	16%	10%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (rating 1603 vs 1446).
H2H favours Ajax: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax	NEC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 7.4	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Pinn 1.31
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.99 ★
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +5’	1.27	5.50	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +376’	1.31	5.99	7.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax 2–3–1 NEC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	1-1 HT 1-0	NEC
20/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	NEC	2-2 HT 1-2	Ajax
11/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	0-3 HT 0-0	NEC
01/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	NEC	1-2 HT 1-1	Ajax
18/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	2-2 HT 1-0	NEC
03/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	NEC	1-2 HT 0-0	Ajax

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	17
3	PSV	7	5	1	1	24	10	16
4	FC Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	11
8	FC Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
11	NEC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	7	1	2	4	10	19	5
15	FC Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax	NEC
Excelsior	2-2 D	2-2 D
Willem II	5-1 W	4-1 W
Telstar	4-0 W	1-2 L
PEC Zwolle	2-0 W	3-1 W
FC Groningen	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ajax (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax

DWDWDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
15/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-1	14	0	W
12/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	5-1	11	6	W
05/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	1	6	L
30/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-0	4	0	W
16/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
09/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
24/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
21/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

NEC

DLWLWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
12/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-3	5	6	L
08/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
05/09	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-3	1	3	L
29/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
15/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	2	1	W
08/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	13	4	L
17/05	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	13	3	W
10/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
02/05	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax vs NEC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax win (73%). Probabilities: Ajax 73%, draw 17%, NEC 10%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax vs NEC?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Ajax 2.75 · NEC 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax vs NEC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.