Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente

Team pages: Fortuna Sittard · FC Twente

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Fortuna Sittard1.17

FC Twente2.55

1X2

15% 19% 66%

Fortuna Sittard Draw FC Twente

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortuna Sittard 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLWWLW

FC Twente 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Fortuna Sittard 0–1–5 FC Twente (6 last)

Fortuna Sittard1-2FC Twente
FC Twente3-2Fortuna Sittard
FC Twente1-1Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-2FC Twente
FC Twente2-0Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard0-3FC Twente

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortuna Sittard 1520 · FC Twente 1574

	Fortuna Sittard	Draw	FC Twente
Our model	15%	19%	66%
Market	15%	19%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (rating 1520 vs 1574).
H2H favours FC Twente: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortuna Sittard	FC Twente
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.7	3.5 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.13 ★
2	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.43

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +1’	6.25	5.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +433’	6.08	5.13	1.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortuna Sittard 0–1–5 FC Twente

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Twente
26/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	3-2 HT 1-0	Fortuna Sittard
05/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	1-1 HT 1-0	Fortuna Sittard
23/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Twente
06/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	2-0 HT 0-0	Fortuna Sittard
08/10/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Twente

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	17
3	PSV	7	5	1	1	24	10	16
4	FC Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	11
8	FC Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
11	NEC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	7	1	2	4	10	19	5
15	FC Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	FC Twente
ADO Den Haag	3-2 W	2-0 W
FC Groningen	3-2 W	2-2 D
AZ	0-2 L	2-2 D
Cambuur Leeuwarden	3-1 W	4-1 W
PSV	2-2 D	3-2 W
PEC Zwolle	3-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Twente (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortuna Sittard

LWLDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-5	3	6	L
06/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-2	0	4	W
28/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-2	2	7	W
22/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
08/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	0	2	D
17/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
10/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	6	1	W
03/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-2	1	6	L

FC Twente

DWLLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
12/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	12	4	W
09/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
06/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
30/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-1	9	2	W
16/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
09/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
17/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-5	9	2	L
10/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	4-0	9	2	W
03/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	3	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Twente win (66%). Probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 15%, draw 19%, FC Twente 66%.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.17 · FC Twente 2.55), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.