Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 11/10, 16:45

Prediction: Excelsior vs FC Groningen

Team pages: Excelsior · FC Groningen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Excelsior1.64

FC Groningen1.64

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Excelsior Draw FC Groningen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Excelsior 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWWDLD

FC Groningen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLDDW

Head-to-head

Excelsior 2–1–3 FC Groningen (6 last)

FC Groningen2-3Excelsior
Excelsior0-2FC Groningen
Excelsior0-2FC Groningen
FC Groningen3-0Excelsior
Excelsior1-0FC Groningen
Excelsior2-2FC Groningen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excelsior 1563 · FC Groningen 1502

	Excelsior	Draw	FC Groningen
Our model	37%	25%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior (rating 1563 vs 1502).
H2H favours FC Groningen: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excelsior	FC Groningen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.60 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.68
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.54

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:59 +1’	2.50	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +490’	2.60	3.68	2.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Excelsior 2–1–3 FC Groningen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	2-3 HT 1-1	Excelsior
05/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Groningen
16/01/24 Netherlands Cup	Excelsior	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Groningen
25/02/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	3-0 HT 1-0	Excelsior
08/01/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Groningen
15/12/21 Netherlands Cup	Excelsior	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Groningen

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	17
3	PSV	7	5	1	1	24	10	16
4	FC Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	11
8	FC Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
11	NEC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	7	1	2	4	10	19	5
15	FC Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Excelsior	FC Groningen
Ajax	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Utrecht	1-2 L	2-1 W
NEC	2-2 D	2-1 W
PSV	1-2 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Excelsior

WDWWLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
13/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
08/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
05/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
29/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
15/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
07/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-0	8	0	W
17/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
02/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-2	8	0	W

FC Groningen

WWLWWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
12/09	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
06/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	8	2	D
28/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-3	1-5	4	2	L
16/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-1	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
21/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
17/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
10/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Excelsior win (37%). Probabilities: Excelsior 37%, draw 26%, FC Groningen 37%.

How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Excelsior 1.64 · FC Groningen 1.64), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.