Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 31/07, 20:15
Prediction: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Motor Lublin1.15
Jagiellonia Bialystok1.57
1X2
Motor Lublin
Draw
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Motor Lublin
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Jagiellonia Bialystok
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Motor Lublin
0–3–3
Jagiellonia Bialystok
(6 last)
- Jagiellonia Bialystok4-1Motor Lublin
- Motor Lublin1-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
- Jagiellonia Bialystok3-0Motor Lublin
- Motor Lublin0-2Jagiellonia Bialystok
- Jagiellonia Bialystok0-0Motor Lublin
- Motor Lublin1-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jagiellonia Bialystok (rating 1491 vs 1609).
- H2H favours Jagiellonia Bialystok: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Motor Lublin | Jagiellonia Bialystok | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.9 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Motor Lublin 0–3–3 Jagiellonia Bialystok
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Motor Lublin |
| 14/12/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Motor Lublin | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 16/02/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Motor Lublin |
| 25/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Motor Lublin | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 17/01/24 Europe Friendlies | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Motor Lublin |
| 04/07/23 Europe Friendlies | Motor Lublin | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | Radomiak Radom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Cracovia Krakow | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Motor Lublin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Rakow Czestochowa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Widzew Lodz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Wisla Krakow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Wisla Plock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Krakow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Pogon Szczecin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Motor Lublin | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Rakow Czestochowa | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Jagiellonia Bialystok (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Motor Lublin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Warta Poznan Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Dinamo Bucharest Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 10/05 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 06/04 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
Jagiellonia Bialystok
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | LKS Lomza Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | FC Nordsjaelland Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 16/07 | Sparta Prague Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Pafos FC Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Jagiellonia Bialystok win (46%). Probabilities: Motor Lublin 27%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 46%.
How many goals are expected in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Motor Lublin 1.15 · Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.57), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.