Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 06/09, 17:30
Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Rakow Czestochowa
Team pages: Lech Poznan · Rakow Czestochowa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Lech Poznan2.18
Rakow Czestochowa1.38
1X2
Lech Poznan
Draw
Rakow Czestochowa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Lech Poznan
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Rakow Czestochowa
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lech Poznan
2–2–2
Rakow Czestochowa
(6 last)
- Lech Poznan4-3Rakow Czestochowa
- Rakow Czestochowa2-2Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan0-1Rakow Czestochowa
- Rakow Czestochowa0-0Lech Poznan
- Rakow Czestochowa4-0Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan4-1Rakow Czestochowa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lech Poznan 1626 · Rakow Czestochowa 1503
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Rakow Czestochowa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan (rating 1626 vs 1503).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lech Poznan | Rakow Czestochowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.2 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.3 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan 2–2–2 Rakow Czestochowa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Rakow Czestochowa |
| 24/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Rakow Czestochowa | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Lech Poznan |
| 14/02/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Rakow Czestochowa |
| 09/08/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Rakow Czestochowa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lech Poznan |
| 03/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Rakow Czestochowa | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Lech Poznan |
| 28/09/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Rakow Czestochowa |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Legia Warsaw | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Wisla Krakow | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Cracovia Krakow | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 |
| 12 | Radomiak Radom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 6 |
| 14 | Slask Wroclaw | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 15 | Motor Lublin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Wisla Plock | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 4 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Krakow | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 3 |
| 18 | Rakow Czestochowa | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lech Poznan | Rakow Czestochowa |
|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Cracovia Krakow | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Wisla Plock | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Arka Gdynia | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lech Poznan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 15 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
Rakow Czestochowa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 13/05 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Lechia Gdansk Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan vs Rakow Czestochowa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan win (55%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan 55%, draw 22%, Rakow Czestochowa 23%.
How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Rakow Czestochowa?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Lech Poznan 2.18 · Rakow Czestochowa 1.38), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Rakow Czestochowa?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.