Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 15/09, 18:00

Prediction: Rakow Czestochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin

Team pages: Rakow Czestochowa · Zaglebie Lubin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Rakow Czestochowa1.52

Zaglebie Lubin0.89

1X2

52% 27% 22%

Rakow Czestochowa Draw Zaglebie Lubin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rakow Czestochowa 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLLW

Zaglebie Lubin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Rakow Czestochowa 3–1–2 Zaglebie Lubin (6 last)

Zaglebie Lubin0-0Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa0-1Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin0-2Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa5-1Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin2-0Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa5-0Zaglebie Lubin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rakow Czestochowa 1481 · Zaglebie Lubin 1512

	Rakow Czestochowa	Draw	Zaglebie Lubin
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	52%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rakow Czestochowa: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rakow Czestochowa	Zaglebie Lubin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.81 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.76
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:31 +21’	1.80	3.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:28 +12’	1.92	3.60	3.70
22:45 +19’	1.81▼	3.76▲	4.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rakow Czestochowa 3–1–2 Zaglebie Lubin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	0-0 HT 0-0	Rakow Czestochowa
14/12/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	0-1 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin
31/03/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	0-2 HT 0-0	Rakow Czestochowa
22/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	5-1 HT 1-1	Zaglebie Lubin
04/05/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	2-0 HT 1-0	Rakow Czestochowa
05/11/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	5-0 HT 2-0	Zaglebie Lubin

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	7	6	0	1	14	8	18
2	Lech Poznan	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
3	Legia Warsaw	7	4	3	0	15	6	15
4	Wisla Krakow	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
5	Korona Kielce	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
6	Zaglebie Lubin	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
7	Jagiellonia Bialystok	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
8	Piast Gliwice	7	3	1	3	13	13	10
9	Pogon Szczecin	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
10	GKS Katowice	7	3	0	4	13	11	9
11	Cracovia Krakow	7	2	2	3	6	8	8
12	Radomiak Radom	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
13	Widzew Lodz	7	1	4	2	10	10	7
14	Slask Wroclaw	8	1	3	4	10	13	6
15	Motor Lublin	8	1	2	5	9	15	5
16	Wisla Plock	6	1	2	3	4	11	5
17	Wieczysta Krakow	6	1	1	4	9	13	4
18	Rakow Czestochowa	7	1	0	6	8	15	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rakow Czestochowa	Zaglebie Lubin
Gornik Zabrze	1-2 L	2-0 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok	2-5 L	0-1 L
Slask Wroclaw	1-2 L	2-1 W
Piast Gliwice	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Lubin (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rakow Czestochowa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
30/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	2-5	5	2	L
16/08	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
02/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
26/07	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
23/05	Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-0	1	3	W
17/05	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	3-0	3-1	0	7	W
13/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	6	5	L

Zaglebie Lubin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
07/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
23/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
02/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-3	2	0	L
27/07	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
23/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
15/05	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/05	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rakow Czestochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rakow Czestochowa win (52%). Probabilities: Rakow Czestochowa 52%, draw 27%, Zaglebie Lubin 22%.

How many goals are expected in Rakow Czestochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Rakow Czestochowa 1.52 · Zaglebie Lubin 0.89), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rakow Czestochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.