Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 14/09, 19:00

Prediction: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice

Team pages: Radomiak Radom · Piast Gliwice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Radomiak Radom1.46

Piast Gliwice1.46

1X2

37% 27% 37%

Radomiak Radom Draw Piast Gliwice

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Radomiak Radom 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDWD

Piast Gliwice 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLDWW

Head-to-head

Radomiak Radom 2–3–1 Piast Gliwice (6 last)

Piast Gliwice3-1Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom1-0Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice0-0Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom1-1Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice2-3Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom1-1Piast Gliwice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Radomiak Radom 1461 · Piast Gliwice 1518

	Radomiak Radom	Draw	Piast Gliwice
Our model	37%	27%	37%
Market	37%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Piast Gliwice (rating 1461 vs 1518).
H2H favours Radomiak Radom: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Radomiak Radom	Piast Gliwice
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.52
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:30 +2’	2.50	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:55 +106’	2.36	3.51	2.89
23:17 +66’	2.38▲	3.52▲	2.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Radomiak Radom 2–3–1 Piast Gliwice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Piast Gliwice	3-1 HT 1-0	Radomiak Radom
20/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Radomiak Radom	1-0 HT 0-0	Piast Gliwice
04/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Piast Gliwice	0-0 HT 0-0	Radomiak Radom
03/11/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Radomiak Radom	1-1 HT 1-0	Piast Gliwice
08/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Piast Gliwice	2-3 HT 1-1	Radomiak Radom
02/09/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Radomiak Radom	1-1 HT 0-0	Piast Gliwice

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
2	Legia Warsaw	7	4	3	0	15	6	15
3	Gornik Zabrze	6	5	0	1	12	7	15
4	Jagiellonia Bialystok	6	4	0	2	11	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
6	Piast Gliwice	7	3	1	3	13	13	10
7	GKS Katowice	6	3	0	3	12	9	9
8	Pogon Szczecin	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
9	Korona Kielce	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
10	Zaglebie Lubin	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Cracovia Krakow	7	2	2	3	6	8	8
12	Radomiak Radom	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
13	Widzew Lodz	7	1	4	2	10	10	7
14	Slask Wroclaw	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
15	Motor Lublin	7	1	2	4	8	13	5
16	Wisla Plock	6	1	2	3	4	11	5
17	Wieczysta Krakow	6	1	1	4	9	13	4
18	Rakow Czestochowa	6	0	0	6	6	14	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Radomiak Radom	Piast Gliwice
Widzew Lodz	0-0 D	1-2 L
Zaglebie Lubin	0-0 D	0-2 L
Legia Warsaw	0-5 L	1-1 D
GKS Katowice	1-3 L	3-0 W
Wieczysta Krakow	2-1 W	3-4 L
Lech Poznan	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Radomiak Radom (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Radomiak Radom

DLLWLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/08	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
23/08	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
14/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-4	0-5	2	3	L
08/08	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-3	2	8	L
02/08	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-3	1	9	L
24/07	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	5	9	W
23/05	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-5	2-6	4	5	L
16/05	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
11/05	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	4	10	D

Piast Gliwice

DLLLWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-0	3	9	W
29/08	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
22/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-4	7	1	L
09/08	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
01/08	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	4-3	4	3	W
27/07	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	11	2	L
23/05	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
17/05	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-3	1-3	9	7	L
10/05	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Radomiak Radom win (37%). Probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37%, draw 27%, Piast Gliwice 37%.

How many goals are expected in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Radomiak Radom 1.46 · Piast Gliwice 1.46), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.