Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 12/09, 20:15

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin · GKS Katowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Zaglebie Lubin1.26

GKS Katowice1.23

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Zaglebie Lubin Draw GKS Katowice

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLWDDD

GKS Katowice 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin 3–1–2 GKS Katowice (6 last)

Zaglebie Lubin0-2GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice2-2Zaglebie Lubin
GKS Katowice1-0Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin1-0GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice0-5Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin1-0GKS Katowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin 1472 · GKS Katowice 1525

	Zaglebie Lubin	Draw	GKS Katowice
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GKS Katowice (rating 1472 vs 1525).
H2H favours Zaglebie Lubin: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin	GKS Katowice
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.7	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.5	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.70 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.35
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:33 +7’	2.50	3.25	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +8’	2.72	3.35	2.58
11:38 +1’	2.70▼	3.35	2.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin 3–1–2 GKS Katowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	0-2 HT 0-1	GKS Katowice
28/07/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	GKS Katowice	2-2 HT 0-2	Zaglebie Lubin
09/03/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	GKS Katowice	1-0 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin
31/08/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	1-0 HT 0-0	GKS Katowice
25/04/15 Poland I Liga	GKS Katowice	0-5 HT 0-1	Zaglebie Lubin
28/09/14 Poland I Liga	Zaglebie Lubin	1-0 HT 0-0	GKS Katowice

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
2	Legia Warsaw	7	4	3	0	15	6	15
3	Gornik Zabrze	6	5	0	1	12	7	15
4	Jagiellonia Bialystok	6	4	0	2	11	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
6	Piast Gliwice	7	3	1	3	13	13	10
7	GKS Katowice	6	3	0	3	12	9	9
8	Pogon Szczecin	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
9	Korona Kielce	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
10	Zaglebie Lubin	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Cracovia Krakow	7	2	2	3	6	8	8
12	Radomiak Radom	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
13	Widzew Lodz	7	1	4	2	10	10	7
14	Slask Wroclaw	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
15	Motor Lublin	7	1	2	4	8	13	5
16	Wisla Plock	6	1	2	3	4	11	5
17	Wieczysta Krakow	6	1	1	4	9	13	4
18	Rakow Czestochowa	6	0	0	6	6	14	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin	GKS Katowice
Pogon Szczecin	0-0 D	1-1 D
Radomiak Radom	0-0 D	3-1 W
Piast Gliwice	2-0 W	0-3 L
Jagiellonia Bialystok	0-1 L	2-2 D
Gornik Zabrze	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin

DWLLWLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
23/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
02/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-3	2	0	L
27/07	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
23/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
15/05	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/05	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
03/05	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

GKS Katowice

WDDDLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	0-3	8	9	L
30/08	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
23/08	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	5-0	1	2	W
16/08	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
02/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-1	10	9	W
26/07	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
23/05	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
17/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
10/05	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
03/05	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa	3-1	5-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin win (36%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36%, draw 29%, GKS Katowice 35%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 · GKS Katowice 1.23), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.