Football · Mexico Liga MX · 10/10, 05:00

Prediction: Tigres UANL vs Toluca

Team pages: Tigres UANL · Toluca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Tigres UANL1.12

Toluca1.21

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Tigres UANL Draw Toluca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tigres UANL 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDDDLW

Toluca 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWLD

Head-to-head

Tigres UANL 2–2–2 Toluca (6 last)

Toluca0-0Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL0-0Toluca
Toluca2-1Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL1-0Toluca
Toluca3-4Tigres UANL
Toluca3-0Tigres UANL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tigres UANL 1476 · Toluca 1585

	Tigres UANL	Draw	Toluca
Our model	32%	31%	37%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1476 vs 1585).
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tigres UANL	Toluca
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	2.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.8	3.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.92 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:39 +20’	2.70	3.60	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:24 +214’	2.92	3.53	2.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tigres UANL 2–2–2 Toluca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 CONCACAF Champions Cup	Toluca	0-0 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
18/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	0-0 HT 0-0	Toluca
15/12/25 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	2-1 HT 1-1	Tigres UANL
12/12/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-0 HT 0-0	Toluca
27/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	3-4 HT 1-3	Tigres UANL
18/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	3-0 HT 1-0	Tigres UANL

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	23	12	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
3	Chivas Guadalajara	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
5	Leon	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	16	17	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
12	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10	13	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tigres UANL	Toluca
Puebla	1-0 W	1-0 W
Juarez FC	0-2 L	4-0 W
Necaxa	1-1 D	3-1 W
Santos Laguna	0-0 D	2-3 L
Atlante	2-0 W	0-0 D
Atlas	1-2 L	5-2 W
Queretaro	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Toluca (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tigres UANL

LDLLWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
19/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
13/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
06/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	16	4	L
02/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	11	9	L
26/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
17/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	4	7	L

Toluca

WLWDWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-2	3-3	5	5	D
21/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-3	6	3	L
16/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
13/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	6	4	W
31/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
22/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
16/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
03/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
22/07	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
19/07	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca win (38%). Probabilities: Tigres UANL 34%, draw 28%, Toluca 38%.

How many goals are expected in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Tigres UANL 1.12 · Toluca 1.21), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.