Football · Mexico Liga MX · 12/10, 03:10

Prediction: Unam Pumas vs Cruz Azul

Team pages: Unam Pumas · Cruz Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Unam Pumas1.33

Cruz Azul1.76

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Unam Pumas Draw Cruz Azul

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Unam Pumas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLWLDL

Cruz Azul 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWWLD

Head-to-head

Unam Pumas 1–2–3 Cruz Azul (6 last)

Unam Pumas1-2Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul0-0Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas2-2Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul2-3Unam Pumas
Cruz Azul3-2Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas0-2Cruz Azul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unam Pumas 1464 · Cruz Azul 1490

	Unam Pumas	Draw	Cruz Azul
Our model	28%	25%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cruz Azul: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unam Pumas	Cruz Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.70

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 20:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.52 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 5.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:02 +9’	3.20	3.60	2.05
15:13 +1’	3.10▼	3.60	2.10▲
07:14 +6’	3.50▲	3.75▲	2.00▼
13:38 +14’	3.40▼	3.75	2.05▲
20:46 +3’	3.40	3.70▼	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:00 +1391’	3.36	3.63	2.09
23:47 +6’	3.52▲	3.66▲	2.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unam Pumas 1–2–3 Cruz Azul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	1-2 HT 1-0	Cruz Azul
22/05/26 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	0-0 HT 0-0	Unam Pumas
15/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	2-2 HT 0-2	Cruz Azul
09/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	2-3 HT 2-1	Unam Pumas
06/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	3-2 HT 2-1	Unam Pumas
27/10/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	0-2 HT 0-2	Cruz Azul

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	23	12	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
3	Chivas Guadalajara	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
5	Leon	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	16	17	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
12	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10	13	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unam Pumas	Cruz Azul
Atletico San Luis	2-3 L	3-2 W
Atlas	1-1 D	0-2 L
Tijuana	0-2 L	1-2 L
Necaxa	1-1 D	3-1 W
Toluca	2-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cruz Azul (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unam Pumas

LWWDDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	11	3	L
20/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
14/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
11/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
24/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
16/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	3-1	5-1	0	3	W
22/07	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
19/07	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	9	1	L

Cruz Azul

WWLLLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-3	4	5	D
20/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	3-0	4-3	6	7	W
07/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
17/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
22/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unam Pumas vs Cruz Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruz Azul win (46%). Probabilities: Unam Pumas 28%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 46%.

How many goals are expected in Unam Pumas vs Cruz Azul?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Unam Pumas 1.33 · Cruz Azul 1.76), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Unam Pumas vs Cruz Azul?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.