Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/10, 03:00
Prediction: Toluca vs Tijuana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Toluca1.82
Tijuana1.08
1X2
Toluca
Draw
Tijuana
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Toluca
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Tijuana
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toluca
4–1–1
Tijuana
(6 last)
- Toluca1-0Tijuana
- Tijuana0-0Toluca
- Tijuana2-4Toluca
- Toluca4-0Tijuana
- Toluca2-0Tijuana
- Tijuana2-1Toluca
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1542 vs 1485).
- H2H favours Toluca: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca | Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 6.7 | 2.9 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca 4–1–1 Tijuana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tijuana |
| 23/10/25 Mexico Liga MX | Tijuana | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 11/01/25 Mexico Liga MX | Tijuana | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Toluca |
| 15/09/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Tijuana |
| 25/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Tijuana |
| 16/09/23 Mexico Liga MX | Tijuana | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Toluca |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 21 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 20 |
| 5 | Queretaro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Leon | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 17 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 9 | Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| 10 | Unam Pumas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 16 |
| 11 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 13 |
| 16 | Atlante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 9 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Cruz Azul | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Puebla | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Atlas | 5-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Juarez FC | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Queretaro | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 15 | 0 | D |
| 10/10 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/09 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Tijuana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/09 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca vs Tijuana?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca win (54%). Probabilities: Toluca 54%, draw 25%, Tijuana 21%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Tijuana?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Toluca 1.82 · Tijuana 1.08), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Tijuana?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.