Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/10, 05:00

Prediction: Pachuca vs Cruz Azul

Team pages: Pachuca · Cruz Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Pachuca1.48

Cruz Azul1.65

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Pachuca Draw Cruz Azul

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pachuca 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWWDLD

Cruz Azul 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLDDW

Head-to-head

Pachuca 3–3 Cruz Azul (6 last)

Cruz Azul1-2Pachuca
Pachuca0-1Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul2-1Pachuca
Pachuca2-4Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul0-1Pachuca
Pachuca1-0Cruz Azul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pachuca 1507 · Cruz Azul 1486

	Pachuca	Draw	Cruz Azul
Our model	34%	26%	41%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pachuca	Cruz Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:01 +2’	2.80	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca 3–0–3 Cruz Azul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	1-2 HT 1-1	Pachuca
14/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-1 HT 0-0	Cruz Azul
09/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	2-1 HT 1-0	Pachuca
29/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	2-4 HT 2-1	Cruz Azul
14/01/24 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	0-1 HT 0-0	Pachuca
24/08/23 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	1-0 HT 0-0	Cruz Azul

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
6	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	5	2	4	22	21	17
8	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
9	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
10	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
11	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
12	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	11	3	4	4	18	14	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pachuca	Cruz Azul
Necaxa	3-3 D	3-1 W
Santos Laguna	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tijuana	2-2 D	1-2 L
Atlante	3-0 W	2-3 L
Juarez FC	2-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cruz Azul (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pachuca

LLLDDWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	5	8	D
27/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
21/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	10	3	D
12/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	3-0	3-0	5	6	W
05/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	3	10	W
30/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
24/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
18/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
02/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	6	12	L
27/07	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	1	5	L

Cruz Azul

LLLWWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
12/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	6	3	D
27/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-3	4	5	D
20/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	3-0	4-3	6	7	W
07/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
17/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruz Azul win (41%). Probabilities: Pachuca 33%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 41%.

How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Pachuca 1.48 · Cruz Azul 1.65), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.