Football · Germany DFB Pokal · 23/08, 15:30
Prediction: TSV Schott Mainz vs Borussia M'gladbach
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.72Total
TSV Schott Mainz1.36
Borussia M'gladbach3.36
1X2
TSV Schott Mainz
Draw
Borussia M'gladbach
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
TSV Schott Mainz
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Borussia M'gladbach
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · TSV Schott Mainz 1523 · Borussia M'gladbach 1650
| TSV Schott Mainz | Draw | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 2% | 4% | 94% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.72 goals · Bet365 line 5.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Borussia M'gladbach (rating 1523 vs 1650).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| TSV Schott Mainz | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.9 | 5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / – | 3.4 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | – / – | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
TSV Schott Mainz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Engers Germany Oberliga Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar |
3-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/08 | Cosmos Koblenz Germany Oberliga Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | FC Emmelshausen-Karbach Germany Oberliga Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 02/08 | Ahrweiler BC Germany Oberliga Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Eintracht Trier Germany Regionalliga South West |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | TSG Balingen Germany Regionalliga South West |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Sandhausen Germany Regionalliga South West |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Stuttgarter Kickers Germany Regionalliga South West |
0-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/04 | TSV Steinbach Germany Regionalliga South West |
0-2 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Kickers Offenbach Germany Regionalliga South West |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Borussia M'gladbach
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Aston Villa Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/08 | SSVg Velbert Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 8-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 07/08 | TSG Hoffenheim Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Hansa Rostock Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Rot-Weiss Essen Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Wuppertaler Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | SC Viktoria Anrath Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 14-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/05 | SC Spelle-Venhaus Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 6-2 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 09/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in TSV Schott Mainz vs Borussia M'gladbach?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Borussia M'gladbach win (85%). Probabilities: TSV Schott Mainz 6%, draw 8%, Borussia M'gladbach 85%.
How many goals are expected in TSV Schott Mainz vs Borussia M'gladbach?
The model expects 4.72 goals (TSV Schott Mainz 1.36 · Borussia M'gladbach 3.36), with a 57% chance of under 5.25 goals.
Will both teams score in TSV Schott Mainz vs Borussia M'gladbach?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.